Boos and cheers are only noise

Partisan watchers of the governance game do so much booing or cheering that they risk believing their own noise. Fortunately, however, the citizens at large—the “bosses” or ultimate judges, in a democratic society—have the sense to pay more heed to what the players are actually doing on the court, than to what the diehards are screaming from the sidelines.

The rates of satisfaction and dissatisfaction of Filipinos with the performance of the national administration—“admin” for short—are published in the quarterly report cards of the Social Weather Surveys. Newspaper items do not do justice to these report cards. A full perspective requires attention to the many charts and tables, starting from the admin of Cory Aquino, that are on the website.

The latest overall grade is Good. The report card for the Third Quarter of 2014, based on the SWS national survey of Sept. 26-29, 2014, has a grade based on overall performance, plus grades in many specific subjects. With 59 percent satisfied, and 24 percent dissatisfied, with the overall performance of the admin, the latest net satisfaction rate is +35, which we term “Good” (+30 to +49).

Let us not exaggerate. “Good” is below “Very Good” (+50 to +69) and “Excellent” (+70 or more). But it is an upgrade from the overall +29, termed “Moderate” (+10 to +29), in the SWS card of the Second Quarter. The downgrading from a Very Good in the Fourth Quarter of 2013 was partially reversed, contradicting those who spoke of a “free fall” (see “The administration’s report card,” Opinion, 8/16/2014).

The present Good compares very favorably with the past. Sixteen of the 17 report cards of Noynoy Aquino’s admin have overall grades of either Good or Very Good. On the other hand, there was zero Good in 35 report cards under Gloria Arroyo (2001-10), only two Goods in 10 cards under Joseph Estrada (1998-2001), and only four Goods in 24 cards under Fidel Ramos (1992-98). The SWS grading system, which started in 1989, got zero Good in eight cards under Cory Aquino.

The best subject is helping disaster victims. Of the 19 separate subjects graded in the Third Quarter, Helping victims of disasters got the highest score of +52, or Very Good. When last graded, in March 2014, its score was a Very Good +60, and also the best in 17 subjects at that time. These Very Good grades are noteworthy since Supertyphoon “Yolanda” passed its first anniversary just recently.

Despite so much negative publicity, there is no doubt that the Filipino people very much appreciate the efforts of the national government to

assist the victims of Yolanda, as well as other disasters. I think that the effort to assist is appreciated by the people as much as the capacity to assist. In past years, SWS surveys after occurrences of floods, earthquakes, or landslides all found Good or Very Good scores for performance, regardless who was president.

Eight good grades. In the Third Quarter report card, the admin was also graded Good in eight subjects, Moderate in six subjects, Neutral (+9 to -9) in three subjects, and Bad (-30 to -49) in one subject.

The admin’s Good grades were in: Helping the poor (+44), Foreign relations (+43), Defending the country’s territorial rights (+42), Developing science and technology (+42), Preparing for climate change (+41; a new subject), Providing enough supply of electricity (+41), Promoting the welfare of overseas workers (+39), and Ensuring an efficient transportation system (+36).

These continuing core-subjects in the report card had also been Good in previous quarters of the year, except for Developing science and technology, which improved from a Moderate +29 when last scored in March 2002. Helping the poor, graded since 1993, got a Good only once in Ramos’ time, only once in Estrada’s time, and not once in Arroyo’s time.

Six moderate grades. The admin got Moderate grades in: Reconciliation with communist rebels (+28), Reconciliation with Muslim rebels (+27), Fighting terrorism (+23), Providing jobs (+21), Eradicating graft and corruption (+14), and Fighting crime (+14). These are all core subjects, and have been graded Moderate for some time—this category starts from double-digit positive, to allow for error due to sampling.

Three neutral grades. A single-digit grade is called Neutral since it is statistically indistinguishable zero. Grades are Neutral in: Ensuring that no family will ever be hungry (-5), Fighting inflation (-7; up from Poor -18 in June 2014), and Ensuring that oil firms don’t take advantage of oil prices (-7; up from Poor -19 in June). A grade of Poor (-10 to -29) is definitely negative.

It was in Cory Aquino’s time that Fighting corruption, Fighting inflation, and Fighting crime were made “required subjects” in the report card. It is only in P-Noy’s admin that these subjects have regularly gotten grades of Neutral or Moderate.

One bad grade. At present, there is no Poor subject, but there is one Bad subject, namely Resolving the Maguindanao massacre case with justice (-36; not as bad as -44 last June). This case, unresolved after five years, is a stubborn thorn in the side of national governance.

Noise doesn’t matter. Scientific opinion polling tells us what the people perceive for themselves, rather than what noisy political partisans would like them to perceive. As I see it, most Filipinos can distinguish information from noise.

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Contact mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph.