Electoral losses undercut Obama clout in Asia

Weakened by electoral losses in the US midterm polls, President Obama sought over the weekend to reassure anxious American allies in the Asia-Pacific region of Washington’s resolve or capacity to counter China’s aggressive territorial claims in the region.

In a speech at the University of Queensland in Brisbane on Saturday at the end of a three-country tour and hounded by doubts over his clout as a lame-duck president to counter China’s aggressive pursuit of its territorial claims in the region, Obama used strong words to reassure US allies of its commitment to back them against Chinese encroachment.

He insisted that the US strategic policy to “pivot” it back to Asia was real and “here to stay.” Although Obama stopped short of explicitly pointing a finger at China, he left no doubt he was alluding to Beijing’s maritime disputes with its neighbors and growing concern in the region about its military buildup.

“No one should ever question our commitments to our allies,” Obama said in his Queensland speech, which sent a veiled but pointed message to China.

He pledged that, “day in and day out, steadily we will continue to deepen our engagement (with the region) using every element of our power—diplomacy, military, economic, development and the power of our values.”

Enduring stakes

While he reiterated the position that the United States welcomed the rise of a peaceful and stable China, Obama said that Beijing must prove itself to be a “responsible actor,” and adhere to the same rules as other nations, whether trade or on the seas.”

He warned that Asia’s security must not be based on “coercion or intimidation … where big nations bully the small on alliances for mutual security.”

In spelling out the enduring stakes of the United States in the region, Obama said: “Generations of Americans have served and died here so that the people of the Asia-Pacific might live free. So no one should ever question our resolve or our commitment to our allies.”

He promised continued efforts to enhance security ties with countries with long-standing alliance pacts, such as Japan, and former foe, Vietnam—both of which are locked in standoffs with China over claims in the East and South China Sea.

Four members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) claim parts of the South China Sea—Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

During the past few months, Vietnam and the Philippines have clashed with China in a number of violent incidents springing from increasing incursions of Chinese vessels, escorted by gunboats of China’s coast guard, into Philippine and Vietnamese exclusive economic zones demarcated by the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea.

Australia was Obama’s last leg in a tour that began in China and Burma (Myanmar). He arrived politically weakened by the Democratic Party’s election defeats on Nov. 4, in which the Republican Party won control of the Senate and established a larger majority in the House of Representatives.

Obama sought to show the region’s leaders that he was not a lame duck whose political capital to influence events was eroded by the Democrats’ poll reverses on Nov. 4, and that he retained the ability to deliver on promises to deepen US engagement in Asia and the Pacific, a central focus of his foreign policy.

“There are times when people have been skeptical of this rebalance, they’re wondering whether America has the staying power to sustain it. I’m here to say that American leadership in the Asia-Pacific will always be a fundamental focus of my foreign policy,” he said.

More bark than bite?

While Obama’s weeklong trip to Asia is reported to have offered him the opportunity to reinvigorate and reorient his presidency’s rebalancing of American interests to Asia and the Pacific, many in the region were left wondering if the vaunted “Asia pivot” was largely rhetoric but little action. Put differently, whether the tough speech in Brisbane was more bark than bite.

Many Asians are looking for further proof that the policy is real. Some analysts have pointed out that the rebalance or the pivot to Asia has very high support in the region.

But there are “real questions about implementation,” according to Michael Green, senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and Strategic Studies in Washington. He observed that the midterm election results “may reinforce those concerns, from New Zealand to China, whether the administration has the wherewithal to actually through or rebalance as advertised.”

Another think tank took the view that China may have taken some solace in Washington’s preoccupation over recent months with other international crises, but will be attentive now to what Obama’s visit augurs for US relations with Asia over the rest of his term.

Douglas Paal, Asia program director at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, said that the Chinese “have concluded that Obama’s attention to IS (Islamic State), to Ukraine and some extent to Ebola, is taking him away from rebalance to Asia.”

“The Chinese are always relieved, when we are preoccupied somewhere else,” Paal said.

He added that Chinese officials would watch closely the summit meeting between Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing for clues to measuring up Obama’s approach with China over the coming two years.” If Obama comes in tough, and simply confronts Xi with US objections to Chinese actions, Paal said, “it will put a period on relations with his presidency.”