Mar Roxas’ folly

It was, of course, a trial balloon, but with a twist. Since it immediately fell crashing to the ground, one might be tempted to simply laugh at its ridiculousness and file the attempt under Stupid Political Stunts. But that would be to give Interior Secretary Mar Roxas the maneuvering room he doesn’t deserve.

After all, what was he thinking? The other day, he raised the possibility that President Aquino might run for a second term. Since a second term is clearly unconstitutional (despite an irresolute Supreme Court’s disappointing ruling on deposed President Joseph Estrada’s second campaign for the presidency), what was the point of Roxas wishing aloud that the Aquino administration enjoy another six years in office?

The Constitution’s post-dictatorship bias is perhaps clearest in its categorical provision limiting a president to a single six-year term. In other words, the only way President Aquino can run for a second term is for the Constitution to be amended. With two years left in his term, with the fate of his flagship budget initiative hanging in the balance, with major legislation pending in both chambers of Congress (and with some of his political allies threatening impeachment of certain Supreme Court justices), it would be unrealistic for him to launch an attempt to change the Constitution now.

And in fact, Mr. Aquino has been unequivocal since before the 2010 presidential election: He wants no part of Charter change. Even Speaker Feliciano Belmonte, the principal author of a controversial bill seeking economic amendments to the Constitution and one of the President’s staunchest allies, cannot get the President, the head of his own political party, to support his proposed legislation.

So what was the point? We can make an educated guess, based on Roxas’ own rationalizations.

First, Roxas said there was a clamor for the President to run again. We have not heard this clamor; it may be the sort of noise that reverberates inside closed doors, the kind that defines echo chambers. But even if we grant Roxas the benefit of the doubt, and accept that there is such a clamor, that fact alone still won’t be enough to allow a second presidential run.

“As you know, as a matter of principle, the President listens to the voice of his bosses. He listens to the voice of his bosses [the people],” Roxas said. He may have been alluding to the genuine draft that carried Mr. Aquino to the presidency in 2010, but that heady experience is an inadequate justification for a second candidacy that requires nothing less than a constitutional amendment. But Roxas is a smart man with a sense of history; even he knows the very idea of changing the Constitution to allow an incumbent president to run again is Marcosian. From all indications, Mr. Aquino will not stand for it—so why float it?

“Many have voiced their support for another term for P-Noy and we are thankful for the many people who prefer another term. We see this as support for continuance of ‘daang matuwid’ (the straight path),” Roxas said, referring to the President’s governance mantra.

“Continuance.” That is the key word, and it is telling. Because in fact President Aquino is not keen on Charter change, and because in fact there is no real clamor for him to run again (even from his supporters, who expect him to honor both his word and the Constitution), this whole notion of a second presidential term is a manufactured controversy.

It was designed to focus public attention on a perceived continuity gap: Who is the right leader to take over the reins from Mr. Aquino? We can expect Roxas to hammer this point repeatedly, about the need to ensure “continuance,” about the need to proceed on the straight path, because by defining the problem and being identified with it, he can propose himself as its solution.

We do not know if Roxas will reembrace the presidential ambition he set aside in 2009 in favor of his good friend Mr. Aquino. But this trial balloon he has tried to float suggests that he, rather than his friend, is aiming for the presidency again. He is testing whether he can define his campaign as the second coming of the “daang matuwid.”

That crashing thud we hear? It means he’s failing the test.