Aquino’s Iloilo trip bears omens of discontent

President Aquino went on a barnstorming trip to Iloilo City on Friday to test the waters on his standing with the electorate two years before the 2016 presidential election.

The official reason for the trip was to inaugurate a portion of an eight-lane highway, named after his father, the late Sen. Benigno Aquino Jr., touted as a demonstration of the “transformation of the bureaucracy and the countryside” as an offshoot of the administration’s reforms under its “daang matuwid” (right path) program.

Actually, the Iloilo foray was an early sounding board for the President’s endorsement of Interior Secretary Mar Roxas as the Liberal Party (LP) presidential candidate in 2016.

Implicit endorsement

In his speech, the President implicitly pitched Roxas when he said he and Roxas jointly campaigned in the 2010 election on the “right path” platform, stressing that the country would not achieve its development goals if Filipinos deviated from that path.

“Two years from now, we will again pick someone to carry on what we’ve started. I urge you not to deviate. Otherwise, if we go our separate ways, we will not achieve our collective goal,” Mr. Aquino said.

He then thanked Iloilo voters for making him and Roxas No. 1. But in the national vote, Roxas lost to Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay in the vice presidential election.

Roxas, who was seated behind the President on the stage, appeared uneasy, as the President did not directly endorse him as the LP standard-bearer in 2016. The others on the stage were Iloilo political leaders, including Senate President Franklin Drilon, Gov. Arthur Defensor Sr., congressmen and local officials.

Kiss of death?

Although LP leaders have expressed preference for Roxas as the LP candidate in 2010, a huge specter loomed over him—the question of whether an Aquino endorsement would be a kiss of death for him or ensure his election.

Doubts persist because, first, the LP does not have a national party machine to back a Roxas campaign. Second, the President’s popularity is waning, which means an endorsement from him would drag Roxas down. And third, Roxas’ nemesis, Binay, continues to be a nightmare, as the Vice President’s poll ratings rise while the President’s continue to slide.

A Pulse Asia survey in March found Binay leading in voters’ preference (40 percent of respondents) among a list of potential presidential contenders in 2016. It said Binay’s approval rating went up by 7 percentage points, from 80 percent in December last year to 87 percent in March, while his trust rating rose by 9 points, from 77 percent in December to 86 percent in March.

On the other hand, the President’s approval and trust ratings dipped despite high-profile efforts by the justice department to bring criminal cases against senators, congressmen and government officials linked by the National Bureau of Investigation to the P10-billion pork barrel scam.

His own assets

This means that the administration’s anticorruption campaign cannot be a capital asset to enhance the political fortunes of a candidate endorsed by the President.

Maybe Roxas should not be worried too much about the President’s endorsement. The implication is that the more he steps out of the shadow of Mr. Aquino and depend on projecting his own assets, which are not inconsiderable, the better are his chances of running a successful presidential campaign in 2016.

In the Pulse Asia survey in December last year, Mr. Aquino’s approval rating decreased from 79 percent in September to 73 percent in December.

Moreover, the President faces public discontent over the rising prices of basic commodities, especially rice and garlic.

Speaking to reporters in Iloilo, Mr. Aquino said he had directed the NBI to work with the Philippine National Police in investigating “the possibility” of the existence of a cartel manipulating rice and garlic prices. He dismissed reports that the price increases were caused by production and supply problems.

He said he based his judgments on reports from agriculture officials, who had told him that they suspected a possible conspiracy among dealers of garlic and rice to create a shortage in the market and drive up prices.

Mr. Aquino’s order to investigate a possible price manipulation is a knee-jerk reaction: Curb commodities’ price rises by expedient police action.

Ill-timed trip

The President’s trip to Iloilo was ill-timed and revealed omens that he was facing a ferment of discontent.

While he was extolling the success of the administration’s infrastructure projects in Iloilo, his speech at Iloilo River Esplanade was marred by heckling by a group of activists who protested and shouted his name, showing that they were unimpressed with his glowing account of his infrastructure projects.

The protests indicated a deep undercurrent of unrest that cannot be glossed over by public works.

More disturbing to Mr. Aquino is that it came only two weeks after a group of activists tried to interrupt his Independence Day speech in Naga City.

No change

The Naga City protesters, who managed to blend with the crowd, shouted, “No change under the Aquino regime!” Police broke up the protest.

One of them, 19-year-old Emmanuel Pio Mijares, was reported carrying a red cloth bearing antigovernment slogans. According to police, Mijares, a third year psychology student at Ateneo de Naga University and a member of Anakbayan, was arrested and taken to the police station for questioning. He was charged with public disturbance.

These disturbances took place as the government was confronted by other manifestations of unrest in several sectors.

The PNP released a report on Friday that showed a 17.86-percent increase in crime volume from January to the end of May this year, from 245,347 incidents during the same period last year to 289,198.

PNP officials said the crime rate had not been properly reported or recorded by authorities because of pressure on police chiefs to keep crime volume low and crime solution high.