Imagine the worst

Even as local governments are bracing for the usual slew of problems that attend the opening of a new school year (last-minute enrollees, lack of classrooms, striking teachers), and ordinary citizens prepare to cope with the rainy season, here’s another natural phenomenon that we have to contend with—or prepare to contend with.

Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) Director Renato Solidum Jr. recently urged local government leaders to prepare for “a possible major earthquake up to Intensity 8” that he said may hit Northern Luzon and some parts of the Cordillera region. The LGUs, he added, should prepare “for the worst possible scenarios.” Solidum was quoted in a report in another paper that “possible hazards and (their) effects in localities and the whole region must be imagined to craft and implement appropriate solutions.”

After all, the reason preparations and responses to natural disasters often fail to match the extent and power of the threat is not any lack of political will, funds or energy. Oftentimes, the cause could simply be a lack of “imagination,” the failure to conjure up the worst that could happen and so, instead of overpreparing or preparing adequately, authorities find themselves woefully underprepared and instantly overwhelmed.

For the Northern Luzon disaster he foresees, Solidum said the provinces of Cagayan, Quirino, Isabela and Nueva Vizcaya, as well as the eastern parts of Kalinga and Apayao in the Cordilleras, may experience an “intense” event “that may trigger tsunamis as well as multiple hazards.”

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But if we in Metro Manila and environs think the threat is too far away and thus unworthy of our attention, much less our preparations, then, as the saying goes, we have another think coming.

Kelvin Rodolfo, professor emeritus at the University of Illinois at Chicago and best known for calling the world’s attention to the impact of “lahar” in the wake of the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, writes that Metro Manila is very much in “the line of fire” in the event of a major temblor in Luzon.

“We need to remember that reclamation areas in Manila Bay would not require a nearby earthquake to occur to suffer serious damage,” he writes.

In 1968, he reminds us, “Manila was the city hardest hit by the Casiguran, Quezon earthquake.” That earthquake is best remembered for the Ruby Tower collapse in Binondo, killing 260 people, with “many structures that were built on thick river deposits of the Pasig River (suffering) severe damage from ground shaking and/or liquefaction.”

That “Ruby Tower” earthquake was a magnitude 7.3, says Rodolfo, so a magnitude 8, which Solidum is warning us about, is, says Rodolfo, “30 times more powerful.”

And as a further warning, Rodolfo reminds that “reclamation areas are just as susceptible to ground shaking and liquefaction during earthquakes.” Which points out even more strongly the folly of plans to reclaim land along the coast of Manila Bay. Such plans include the building of a spanking new airport and runways with the danger from “ground shaking, liquefaction,” not to mention storm surges, apparently ignored in pursuit of commercial advantage, convenience and even more shopping malls.

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While the effects on Metro Manila are horrific enough, give a thought to the impact on the provinces seen to be directly hit by a major earthquake.

“Earthquakes are sudden onset events which can cause widespread impacts,” Solidum told a meeting of government officials in Tuguegarao recently. “LGUs should prepare and follow end to end early warning to local residents particularly those in areas that are at risk so they will take proper actions or response,” the Phivolcs director added.

Should the anticipated earthquake occur, it could seriously damage “well-built buildings, the foundations of bridges, utility posts and towers” as well as cause landslides from mountainsides and hillsides. Houses on vulnerable land could buckle and collapse, trapping their occupants.

Quite obviously, even without this most recent warning, local governments not just in Northern Luzon but throughout the island (even the Visayas and Mindanao are vulnerable) should put in place measures to mitigate the damage resulting from earthquakes and/or tsunamis, starting with an audit of the safety of public structures, the training of rescue crews and responding teams, and public education.

Judging from news photos, for instance, schoolchildren are taught to duck beneath their desks and cover their heads with textbooks in the event of an earthquake. But shouldn’t disaster preparedness be more comprehensive, including the wielding of whistles and flashlights, drilling for an evacuation plan, the preparation of “holding areas” and other measures?

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And it won’t be as if this would be our first time to experience an earthquake.

Solidum said Northern Luzon has had a “long history of earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions,” citing episodes in Cagayan, including a severe quake in 1690 that destroyed an old Spanish-era church in the town of Lallo, and recent episodes in 1970 and 2000.

To reiterate Solidum’s call: “Possible hazards and (their) effects in localities and the whole region must be imagined to craft and implement appropriate solutions.” All it takes is the courage, the daring and the will to imagine the worst and prepare for it, and only then pray that it doesn’t come to pass.