Filipinos must realize US, China unlikely to fight

China and the United States are playing it cool and safe even though they seem to be at loggerheads over the Philippines’ claims to some parts of the West Philippine Sea and over China’s newfound aggressiveness in its attempt to take control of disputed islets and waters in the West Philippine Sea and the entire South China Sea. On this matter, China is clearly driven by economic and political interests. And so is the United States’ pivot (also referred to as “rebalancing”) to Asia. This is clear to political analysts/observers like myself.

Now and then, major players in the United States’ and China’s military establishments would engage in an unpleasant exchange of words. This gets the world a little bit worried about a looming, brewing cold war between China and the United States. The US-Philippine Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement is one of the manifestations of this developing cold war. The fact is China and the United States are pushing their own interests at our nation’s expense.

Therefore, the Philippines must be very keen on what stakes it should fight for. First, China cannot, and would probably not, attack the United States, for this will have adverse economic repercussions. China cannot afford to cause the collapse of the US economy because the United States owes it trillions of dollars in debt. And China has no power whatsoever to obligate America to pay its debt in a conventional way; it must allow the United States to first regain economic strength so it can pay its debt to China. The provocative verbal exchange between these two superpowers must, therefore, not be perceived as a major threat but a mere tic-tac-toe strategy.

What is most threatening about the tension between China and the United States is its impact on our political affairs and economy. We as a nation must strongly push for our own national interest. The Filipino people and our policymakers must know where to position themselves  on this issue. We are in the middle of a dilemma and could probably land on the losing end if we fail to discern keenly.

—CARLOS B. REALES,

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