Road to peace

Have we now had our fill of the evolving drama swirling around Vhong Navarro, Cedric Lee and Deniece Cornejo? Admittedly, even as we bemoaned the “media circus” around the triangle du jour, our dinner conversation still centered on the ins and outs of this cause célèbre. And this was during the dinner before the “round table” with the panel members of both the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the government.

At the back of our minds, of course, we recognized that we were in the midst of what is undoubtedly the bigger, more significant story, one with potential impact on the nation’s life long after people would have forgotten that an actor/comedian named “Vhong” (and not “Bong” as a much-texted joke avers) ever occupied our attention.

But it’s hard to compete against a story with the trifecta of sex, violence and influence (read: showbiz) going for it. What the near-completion of the peace process between the government and MILF offers, in turn, is a circuitous path, with many questions still left unsettled, and old fears and prejudices still lurking in the background. And as the adage goes: The media hate complexity.

So to boil it down to tabloid-ese, let’s just quote Mohagher Iqbal, chair of the MILF peace panel, on what’s transpired: “There is no other option. The only option is peace.”

You can’t get any clearer—or simpler—than that.

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Admittedly, despite the decades spent fighting on the ground and then talking across the negotiating table—sometimes at the same time—we’re still in the early days of the process to create an elected Bangsamoro government, with the armed forces of the MILF (and, it is hoped, the other armed groups in Mindanao) integrated into the national police and military.

We’re still a long way from the day we can write “finis” to the conflict in Mindanao, and exhale a sigh of relief, relishing the “peace dividend” that till now remains in the realm of the imagined but is nonetheless possible and reachable.

With the Bangsamoro Transition Commission in place, and the agreement and annexes signed and submitted, work now begins on drafting the basic law creating the Bangsamoro. This work includes consulting with all affected parties, including the Christian and lumad (indigenous) populations of Mindanao.

Once the draft basic law is completed, it will be submitted to the President who is expected to certify it as urgent. Should the bill be passed into law (“we have the support of the leadership of both Houses,” assured peace adviser Ging Deles), the Bangsamoro Transition Commission will be abolished and a referendum held in the proposed Bangsamoro territory.

This signals the “winding up” of the affairs of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, to be replaced by the interim ministerial government, to be known as the Bangsamoro Transition Authority.

The proposed timetable calls for the holding of elections simultaneously with the 2016 national elections, after which the elected Bangsamoro government, and officials, shall take office.

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Just a cursory review of the proposed timetable shows a rather tight schedule, and one that will work only if all parties cooperate, and no roadblocks are placed in the way.

But we know how unpredictable politics in this country can be—and the road to the Bangsamoro is undoubtedly rife with politics. Already, we are seeing the beginnings of the worst case scenario, as the military battle it out with the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters, a breakaway group of the MILF. And there is Nur Misuari of the Moro National Liberation Front making loud, threatening noises in the background.

Meanwhile, says Deles, they know of two petitions filed with the Supreme Court contesting the constitutionality of the draft law, even before it’s to be submitted.

So, not an easy road ahead.

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But, consider the potential rewards waiting at the end of the road.

Citing a prospective report of Standard Chartered Bank, the government paints a picture of what awaits the nation—even if only economically—with the success of the peace process.

Economic growth in Mindanao can accelerate to double-digit levels; Mindanao could end up with a higher GDP and per capita GDP “than any other in the Philippines”; the Bangsamoro region’s per capita income could rise from P26,000 to P50,000 by 2017; and the rest of Mindanao’s GDP could conceivably double.

In the initial years after the creation of the Bangsamoro, the agriculture and fishing sectors could benefit the most, with the industry and services sectors picking up; domestic and foreign investment could gain ground; while improved infrastructure and cost competitiveness could speed up economic development.

These gains will benefit not just Mindanao, but the rest of the country, with the Philippines meeting its long-term growth target of 7-8 percent a year.

Now isn’t that better news than the outcome of the Vhong-Deniece-Cedric imbroglio?

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Congratulations to my friend, and a regular at the “Bulong Pulungan sa Sofitel” media forum core group, Frank Evaristo, who was recently elected president of the Manila Rotary Club, the first such club in Asia.

Evaristo is a former Jaycees national president, current president of the Alay Lakad Foundation, and is very active in many civic causes.

Outgoing president Rudy Bediones and district governor-nominee and chair of Comelec Obet Pagdanganan announced the results of the election held recently at the Manila Polo Club. Induction ceremonies will be held on July 3.