Survey facts of 2013
The 2014 SWS Survey Review, presented last Tuesday at the Asian Institute of Management, was about facts. The surveys were genuine, and scientifically representative of the actual quality of life and the true opinions of the Filipino people. The raw data of all SWS surveys are permanently archived so that researchers may recompute the findings and extend the analysis.
Democracy is very healthy. Satisfaction with how democracy works hit a new record of 80 percent in June, after the election. (This corrects my PowerPoint’s 74 percent, which was the number in March.) After spiking to 69 in September 2010, the percentage has since been no less than 64. This is the first time a spike has happened after a midterm election, ever since the Ramos period.
The SWS final preelection survey predicted all 12 senatorial winners. The correlation of the survey’s ranks with the Commission on Elections’ ranks for all contenders was 97 percent, i.e., the survey passed the periodic election test, as usual. Four percent of voters said the surveys made them switch to stronger candidates, and 3 percent said they made them switch to weaker ones, for a “net bandwagon effect” of only 1 percent. (But no effect, however large, is undemocratic.) Seventy-four percent call surveys Good, and only 2 percent call them Bad, for the country.
Governance set new records. The President and the national administration have higher satisfaction ratings than ALL past administrations, both in general and in particular subjects. Helping disaster victims, basic education, being transparent, and conducting foreign relations now all rate as Very Good. Helping the poor, promoting overseas Filipino workers, and fighting terrorism are now all Good. Reconciling with Muslim and communist rebels and fighting crime are now Moderate. Fighting corruption, fighting hunger, and fighting inflation all rate Neutral now, instead of Poor as in the past.
A presently Poor subject of the national administration is “ensuring that oil firms don’t take advantage of oil prices,” at net -11. Its worst subject is “resolving the Maguindanao massacre case with justice,” at a Poor net -26 as of March—but it has become much worse recently, as a coming SWS media release will show.
Satisfaction with the Vice President is Very Good. The ratings of the Senate President, the Speaker, and the Chief Justice are Moderate. The ratings of the performance of the Senate and the Supreme Court, as institutions, are Good; those of the lower House and the Cabinet are Moderate.
“Yolanda”: gratitude amidst destruction. In last week’s piece, I estimated that Yolanda made both general poverty and food poverty in the fourth quarter rise by 3 points, and hunger by 1 point, for the Philippines as a whole. Every point corresponds to 210,000 families.
The SWS December survey rated national net satisfaction with various sources of relief efforts as follows: foreign countries, +82-83; private organizations, +70-76; local governments, +58-63; and national government, +54-61. Each range encompasses the ratings of Yolanda victims and nonvictims. SWS calls +70 and up Excellent, and +50 to +69 Very Good.
(In December, the net trust ratings of several countries reached new records: United States, +82; Australia, +53; and Japan, +47. It is good for our foreign friends to know how much we appreciate them.)
For the relief efforts of the national government, the net ratings are: delivering medical help, +71-74; delivering food and water, +66-72; providing temporary shelter, +53-56; repairing infrastructure, +50-51; and identifying the dead, +40-42. SWS calls +30 to +49 Good.
Hope for peace is strong. As of last June, 70 percent of all Filipinos had hope for peace between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, but it was an even greater 85 percent among Muslim Filipinos. Only 35 percent of all Filipinos expected peace to be reached by 2016, within P-Noy’s term of office, but this expectation reached 84 percent among Muslims.
The pork barrel is unlamented. Last September, 67 percent of Filipinos said their areas did not benefit from a Priority Development Assistance Fund project; 60 percent said a lot of project funds were wasted in the implementation. No wonder 58 percent agreed, in December, with the Supreme Court decision declaring the PDAF unconstitutional.
Economic deprivation remains stubborn. Were it not for Yolanda, there would have been some lessening in the SWS indicators of poverty and hunger in 2013. The failure of growth in Gross Domestic Product to uplift the poor clearly indicates drastic widening of economic inequality. But it is unjust that only the upper and, perhaps, the middle classes should benefit from growth.
Climate change needs more attention. Fifty-four percent say they have personally experienced moderate to severe impacts from climate change, but only 47 percent say they know enough about its expected impact in the Philippines. Two-thirds did nothing in the last three years to personally reduce the risks of climate change.
Public morale is strong. In December, 41 percent said they expect their personal quality of life to improve, and only 8 percent expect it to worsen, in the next 12 months. The SWS 2013 Survey of Enterprises found businessmen’s expectations to be better than at any time since these surveys began in 2000.
The more surveys, the better. Final advice to doubters: DO YOUR OWN SURVEYS. Competition is welcome. In the end, the good will survive.
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