BLURB
“Does The US really want to tell those of us in the rest of the world that our lives are not of the same value as [theirs]?” —South African Nobel Peace Prize winner Archbishop Desmond Tutu
In the past, US drones launched in the Middle East were mainly controlled via satellite thousands of kilometers away at the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia. But recently, for the first time, the United States showcased the new carrier-based superdrone X-47B. That it has a longer range than existing drones and that it is based on mobile carriers mean it can achieve deep penetration of enemy territories.
The implications of this new drone monster are vast and unimaginable. Without the use of a foreign airfield, the United States can now penetrate deep into Chinese territory to take out antiaccess missiles, which may trigger a nuclear response if seen as an all-out invasion. The X-47B may eventually make “Top Gun” pilots obsolete.
Here is a nuclear scenario. A tense confrontation between China and the United States sparks in the China Sea. In fear of the antiship Dong Feng 21D supermissile, the USS George Washington nuclear supercarrier launches a successful preemptive strike, sending an invisible X-47B from near China’s 18,000-kilometer coastline, which takes out a DF-21D missile launch pad deep in the China mainland. The United States fears the dreaded DF-21D because it is considered a “hypersonic” missile (speed of mach 10 and over) with a 1,500-kilometer range. At mach 10, a carrier may have no time to react.
Analysts dub the DF-21D as a “game-changing carrier-killer.” The carrier may no longer be “invincible.” Thinking the attack is a prelude to an all-out invasion, China retaliates by sending a nuclear DF-21D from another launch pad and successfully takes out the USS George Washington. A nuclear war begins. (A scenario variation is China launches the preemptive strike, sending a DF-21D that takes out the USS George Washington as it nears the China coastline.)
The X-47B uses artificial intelligence (AI) software that may nullify human control. In its infancy, AI does not give an assurance it will work. Its software is untested in a real-time combat situation. The Pentagon admits the X-47B is an experimental prototype today, and the successful test was just to gather more data for its new drone program.
During the test, two controllers aboard the nuclear aircraft USS George Bush used a forearm-mounted device to launch the X-47B. After launch, it does not have to be piloted by remote control because AI takes over and decides everything for itself—course corrections, new directions, etc. The Pentagon has promised that the drone still needs human intervention to open fire, but in a desperate situation, a promise may not hold. We never really know. The many past “friendly fire” drone blunders prove we are not ready for an AI-driven superdrone. “Killer robots” with faulty software triggering an accidental nuclear war are no longer just from a Hollywood screenplay.
The US Navy presently has an operational drone—the armed short-range Fire Scout, built more like a helicopter. The Fire Scout, if placed on the minideck of a minicarrier called a littoral combat ship (LCS)—meaning shore-hugging—will be deadly, and the Chinese know this. The LCS USS Freedom recently docked in Singapore, very near the China
border. As long as there is a supermobile stealth LCS with a Fire Scout, the need for the large-carrier-based longer-range X-47B is lessened. But in a large theater of conflict, the long-range X-47B will have a critical role.
The Patriot drone was such a success that the US sorties spread to Pakistan and Iran. Today the drone is a standard US weapon in any war. Bush had less than 50 drones. President Barack Obama now has 7,500, according to Peter Bergen, CNN security analyst. It protects the lives of US soldiers effectively, as much as it kills innocent civilians effectively. The drone is a potential weapon of mass destruction. The New America Foundation estimates US drone attacks to have killed between 1,900 and 3,200 people in Pakistan over the past eight years. Yet, Pakistan is requesting the United States for drones.
China, the European Union, Iran, Israel and 70 other nations now have drones. The European Union unveiled the Neuron, and China has a staggering 25 models. It is a catalyst to a faster arms race, and to World War III.
Israel, the world’s largest exporter, has sold drones to Nigeria, Russia, and Mexico. The United States now has export licenses for the deadly Patriot for Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Morocco, and the United Arab Republics. The Teal Group estimates that the global drone R&D market will double to $6-11 billion in a decade, Bergen said.
Libyan rebels got a drone dirt-cheap from Canada. Drones in the hands of terrorists or drug cartels is the next step. Some Filipino lawmakers are asking if the secret drone sorties by the US and Philippine militaries in Mindanao are a violation of the Visiting Forces Agreement.
Bernie Lopez (eastwindreplyctr@gmail.com) has been writing political commentaries for the last 20 years. He is also a radio-TV broadcaster.