‘Narrowing the disconnect’

Will the 10 million or so overseas Filipino workers redefine the future of our grandchildren?

Leaf through “Exceptional People,” suggests Isabel Escoda from Hong Kong. This new Princeton University book shows how the flow of people is reshaping that future.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas dubbed a 2007 conference as “OFWs: Ilan ba Talaga Tayo?” OFWs are in 193 countries and territories today. It has been estimated that one of every 10 Filipinos is abroad. Their mobility and illegals make tallies difficult. Revolts, like the “Arab Spring,” can alter flows overnight.

“Roughly 3,752 Filipinos leave daily,” Viewpoint noted earlier. “That’s 28 times the first clutch of timid migrants who left five decades back… The demographic ‘youth bulge’ is evident. Many are between 25 and 44 years old. And 36 out of every 100 have a college degree.”

Their remittances crested at $21.3 billion last year—up from $14.4 billion in 2007. Filipinos are the world’s fourth-highest remitters, after Indians, Chinese and Mexicans. The cash lets off steam from pressure-cooker poverty.

“The wage gap between rich and poor countries is far wider than it was a century ago,” note “Exceptional People” authors Ian Goldin, Geoffrey Cameron and Meera Balarajan.

Per capita (gross domestic product at purchasing power parity) tables from the International Monetary Fund are instructive: Philippines—$3,737, Thailand—$9,187, Singapore—$52,839.

“You don’t have to answer this question, Captain,” a foreign recruiter told the Filipino 747 pilot. “You are number seven in seniority at your airline. So, why sign up with us?”

“Simple,” our high-school classmate replied. “You pay me five times more. And it’s all tax-free.”

The recruiter beamed. “Sign here, Captain.”

The number of international migrants doubled in the past quarter-century to more than 200 million. In Latin America, Mexicans led migrants, mostly sprinting for the US of A next door. Filipinos, Indonesians and Bangladeshis spearhead migrants from Asia. Filipino emigration rate is 4.0 percent, about double Vietnam’s 2.4 percent.

“Migration is the most effective tool yet devised for reducing global poverty,” the Princeton study asserts. If rich countries allowed skilled migrants to expand their own labor forces by a mere 3 percent, the world would be richer, according to one estimate, by $356 billion a year. “That is more than 500 times the amount the rich world spends on foreign aid each year.”

Europe and America (and North Asian countries like Japan and Korea) are aging. “They’ll need more young and energetic nurses, care assistants, housekeepers and cleaners,” said Goldin, Cameron and Balarajan. “Robots cannot do everything. Migrants can untangle a future of labor shortages in rich countries.”

Demand for highly skilled workers will grow. In the decade ahead, advanced nations will compete even more fiercely for mobile talent. Migration will “define our future.”

“Immigration is unpopular in rich countries,” Goldin, Cameron and Balajaran noted. “There, people overestimate its costs and underestimate its benefits. Migration creates losers as well as winners. But the gains vastly outweigh the losses.”

The UN Human Development Report made the same point in 2009. Migration can be a win-win solution for both migrant-sending and receiving countries. To achieve this, the “Overcoming Barriers” study recommends “six pillar reforms.” Among others, these include: (a) make mobility an integral part of national development policies: (b) liberalize and simplify regular channels that allow people to work abroad; (c) ensure basic rights for migrants; (d) reduce migration transaction costs.”

“The next big wave of migration will come from Africa,” predicts this new book. “Today, most Africans are too poor to move far. A typical Congolese peasant cannot afford the boat fare to Kinshasa, let alone Belgium. But as the continent becomes less poor, more and more Africans will acquire the means to migrate.”

Over 25,000 North African refugees have swamped Italy’s islet of Lampedusa. Is this the first sign of that wave?

The Philippine migration flood won’t ebb anytime soon, caution Jeff Ducanes and Manolo Abella of the United Nations in their OECD study, “Future of International Migration.” The Korean and Thai experiences show that pressure to migrate eases with sustained economic growth. For the Philippines, that point could come in the 2030s. For much of the next decade, the pressure to migrate will persist.

Surveys show that four out of 10 children aged 10 to 12 dream of working abroad. And six out of 10 children of OFWs say they, too, would head for the exit.

“The Philippines is still wedded to labor deployment,” the OECD study said. There are no signs of a policy shift that will link the country’s migration policies to development processes.”

Neither have we tallied the trauma to a generation of kids whose substitute parents were a “padala.” “I hear confessions of children whose parents work abroad,” a Jesuit friend said. “I’m stunned by their confusion and pain.”

Local governments in former emigration countries, like Taiwan, India and China, put up resources to bring skilled migrants home. Local governments here are fixated on sucking the 20 percent Local Development Fund as their pork barrel.

‘’This disconnect must be narrowed,” the Jesuit priest said. “Our fathers never imagined an exodus of 10 percent of the population. Many of our children cannot recall a different past.”

(Email: juanlmercado@gmail.com.)