Voters like election surveys

Much of the gratification in doing election surveys comes from the voters’ overwhelming appreciation of them.

In SWS’ final preelection survey of May 2-3, 2013, one of the last questions asked (the 44th out of 49 questions) of the 2,400 registered voters responding nationwide was:

“Sa  pangkalahatan,  masasabi  ba  ninyo  na  ang  mga  surveys  na  nagtatanong  kung  sino  ang  malamang  na  iboboto  ng  mga  tao  sa  darating  na  halalan  sa  Mayo  2013,  ay  isang  MABUTING  bagay  o  isang  MASAMANG  bagay  para  sa  ating  bansa,  o  hindi  ninyo  alam?”  (In general, would you say that surveys that ask whom the people will most probably vote for in the coming May 2013 elections are a GOOD thing or a BAD thing for our country, or you don’t know?)

To this, 74.4 percent answered that election surveys are a good thing, a mere 2.4 percent said they are a bad thing, and 23.2 percent said they did not know.  This means that, out of every 40 voters, 30 like election surveys, only one dislikes them, and the remaining nine have no definite opinion.  This is as of the beginning of May, at the end of the election surveying season.

SWS has asked this question before, at more or less the same time.  In 2010, the score was 67 likes to six dislikes; in 2007, the score was 71 likes to three dislikes.  Thus, the public support for election survey work is very firm across time.

Calling election surveys “good.”  Election surveys are called a good thing all over the country.  The national percent that likes them is the average of 71 percent in the National Capital Region, 73 percent in the rest of Luzon, 77 percent in the Visayas, and 76 percent in Mindanao.  The rates of liking surveys are high for men and women, for young and old, and even for all social classes.

What is clearest is that, the higher the education, the more the liking for election surveys.  Those calling election surveys good were 68 percent among voters who did not finish elementary school, 73 percent among those who completed elementary but not high school, 74 percent among high school graduates up to taking some college, and 82 percent among college graduates.

Awareness of the 2013 preelection surveys in particular.  Of course, not all voters follow the surveys for a current election.  The registered voters aware of election survey news, at campaign’s end, were only 36 percent in 2013, compared to 64 percent in 2010, which was a presidential election year.  By area, the percentage aware of the 2013 surveys was 43 in Metro Manila, 32 in the Balance of Luzon, 36 in the Visayas, and 42 in Mindanao.

Schooling is also the strongest determinant of awareness of the 2013 election survey news.  Those aware were 28 percent among elementary school leavers, 31 percent among those who completed elementary but not high school, 38 percent among high school graduates up to some college, and 48 percent among college graduates.

Knowing the survey news for the current election converts to greater appreciation for them.  The 74 percent that like election surveys is composed of 80 percent liking by those who have followed the 2013 news and 71 percent liking by those who haven’t followed them.

Awareness of the 2013 surveys, by preferred candidate.  Among those intending to vote for candidates portrayed by the surveys as relatively strong, and who in fact did win eventually, the survey awareness ranged narrowly between 35 and 40 percent, or a width of only five points.  Here are the figures for those intending to vote for respective candidates: Poe 38, Legarda 37, Cayetano 36, Escudero 38, Binay 35, Angara 38, Aquino 36, Pimentel 40, Trillanes 40, Villar 35, Ejercito 37, and Honasan 37.

Among the voters who intended to vote for relatively weak candidates, the range of survey awareness was between 24 and 44 percent, i.e., with a much bigger width of 20 points.  Here are the corresponding percentages: Gordon 42,

Zubiri 39, Enrile 35, R. Magsaysay 38, Hontiveros 41, Hagedorn 43, Villanueva 44, Madrigal 34, M. Magsaysay 36, Casiño 44, Maceda 35, Cojuangco 33, De los Reyes 39, Alcantara 30, Belgica 29, Penson 44, David 36, Montaño 33, Llasos 30, Señeres 32, and Falcone 24.  This suggests that some candidates have supporters too discouraged to take interest in surveys, while others have strident fans who watch the numbers closely for signs that they might succeed.

Both “winning voters” and “losing voters” like election surveys.  Regardless of whether they support strong or weak candidates, the great majority of voters say that election surveys are a good thing.  Those aware of the 2013 survey news generally like the surveys more.

In the following list, the number following each name is the percentage that like election surveys of those aware of 2013 survey news and intending to vote for the candidate: Poe 82; Legarda 82; Cayetano 83; Escudero 81; Binay 81; Angara 82; Aquino 83; Pimentel 82; Trillanes 81; Villar 83; Ejercito 80; Honasan 80; Gordon 80; Zubiri 80; Enrile 81; R. Magsaysay 83; Hontiveros 83; Hagedorn 67; Villanueva 81; Madrigal 84; M. Magsaysay 78; Casiño 75; Maceda 78; Cojuangco 81; De los Reyes 77; Alcantara 66; Belgica 44; Penson 66; David 76; Montaño 70; Llasos 76; Señeres 80; and Falcone 78.

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Reference: SWS media release of May 11, 2013, “SWS May 2-3, 2013 preelection survey: election surveys are considered Good by 74%; their effect on voting plans is tiny.”  Special tabulations for this piece were done by Josefina Mar of SWS. Contact SWS: or mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph.