Back to square one?

We do not have to look far to find sources of hope, inspiring stories of unexpected or eagerly anticipated election victories, from the May 13 vote. But the setbacks are real, too, and threaten to undo or undermine many of these same victories.

The landslide win of Leni Robredo, the widow of the late exemplar of tsinelas leadership Jesse Robredo, is perhaps the most symbolic; what had been expected by many to be a battle royale turned into a rout. The surprisingly easy win came after a difficult and tedious campaign; there’s a lesson there for students of political power. But Leni’s victory can also be understood as part of a familiar narrative: the redemptive partner or spouse, sworn to finish what a loved one had started. It’s a story with many heroines, from Gabriela Silang to Gregoria de Jesus, from Josephine Bracken to Corazon Aquino. There’s a lesson there, too, for students of culture.

The closely fought victory of Oscar Moreno over long-time Cagayan de Oro Mayor Dongkoy Emano is another morale-booster, the culmination of a long and long-quixotic campaign to uproot an entrenched, “Sendong”-stained regime.

In Cebu, longstanding dynasties—among the oldest in the country—sustained serious defeats. Tommy Osmeña lost his attempt to reclaim the office of the Cebu City mayor from incumbent Mike Rama. Pablo Garcia Jr. is losing his bid to replace sister Gwen as provincial governor. And Eduardo Gullas lost for the first time ever, to businessman Johnny de los Reyes, in the outgoing congressman’s race to become mayor of Talisay City. (Gullas’ concession speech sounded a true grace note. “Against the advice of my lawyers and loyal supporters,” he said in a statement, “I humbly concede to my worthy opponent.”)

And yet any excitement we might feel from these victories or from similarly graceful concessions are immediately tempered by daily reality. The defeats suffered by the Osmeña, Garcia and Gullas clans may be serious, but they are not mortal.

Tommy Osmeña himself said he would never concede, characterizing Monday’s results as “a combination of money, intimidation and computerization.” In this sense, he is merely representative of so many other election losers, who cannot believe they lost—the very attitude that helps make elections in the Philippines the nerve-wracking, zero-sum game that they are. Gwen Garcia herself, the three-term governor who dominated Cebu politics for a decade, is leading the congressional race in the province’s third district; she is facing unexpected stiff competition, but is in a position to win in what is considered her family’s main bailiwick.

Elsewhere in the country, many political dynasties remain well-entrenched. La Union remained the bailiwick of the Ortegas, Isabela of the Dys, Ilocos Sur of the Singsons, Bataan of the Garcias, Pampanga of the Pinedas. The list goes on and on, depressingly.

And the list also includes ghosts of regimes past.

The Arroyos, for instance, have not lost their grip on political power. Dato Arroyo beat a formidable opponent to retain control of his gerrymandered district in Camarines Sur, and his mother, the former president, retained her seat in Pampanga.

Joseph Estrada—impeached in the House of Representatives, convicted of plunder by the Sandiganbayan, since pardoned by Gloria Arroyo—has been elected mayor of the capital city. To be sure, Erap’s victory was hardly a resounding one; the incumbent mayor Fred Lim gave him a good scare. But a lead of one vote is enough for a mandate, and Estrada has a new one.

The Marcoses are not only back (they’ve been politically resurgent in the last decade or so); they are solidly entrenched. Imelda Marcos has been returned to Congress, daughter Imee has been given a second term in the provincial capitol—and son Ferdinand Jr. is preparing a presidential run. In 1995, the dictator’s son ran for the Senate and lost badly; in 2007, his second run landed him in the winners’ circle, and a step closer to Malacañang.

Conversely, the progressive candidates who represented real change, such as Teddy Casiño of Bayan Muna and Risa Hontiveros of Akbayan, earned the vote of millions of Filipinos, but not enough to bring them into the Senate.

Monday’s elections prove the adage: The more things change, the more things remain the same.