The honeymoon isn’t over yet

THE +46 net satisfaction rating of the Aquino administration in March 2011 is, to me, no real cause for concern, since it is very much higher than all the available ratings of previous administrations, as was shown in the SWS media release.

The SWS surveys on public satisfaction with the performance of an administration started in 1989, in the fourth year of Cory Aquino’s presidency.  Note that the rating of her administration was distinct from the rating of President Cory herself.  Based on Cory’s personal ratings, which started in 1986, surely the satisfaction with her administration in 1986-1988 was higher than afterward.

From 1989 to the end of her term, the highest level of net satisfaction with the administration of Cory Aquino occurred in February 1989, when it was at +23. It went as low as -10 in November 1990, and ended at -5 in April 1992.

(Net satisfaction is the difference between the percent satisfied and the percent dissatisfied. It is the margin of support for an administration. The two opposing sides do not add up to 100 percent because there also exists a third vote, consisting of the abstainers or the neutral.  To command public support, an administration needs only a plurality, and not an outright majority, on its side.  Those who insist on using only gross satisfaction are thinking in terms of black or white, when in reality there is also gray.)

The highest net satisfaction with the administration of President Fidel Ramos happened in its very first quarter, at +32 in September 1992.  It meant a jump of 32 + 5 = 37 points from the end of the outgoing administration to the start of the incoming one.  The rating was still as high as +31 in July 1993, i.e., the honeymoon of FVR’s administration lasted as long as one year.  It went as low as -18 in October 1995, and ended at +9 in March 1998.

The highest net satisfaction with the administration of President Joseph Estrada happened in its second quarter, at +36 in November 1998.  This meant a modest increase of 36 – 9 = 27 points from the end of the FVR period to the start of the Erap period.  The rating was still as high as +34 in March 1999, i.e., the honeymoon of Erap’s administration lasted as long as three quarters.  It went as low as -8 in December 1999, and ended at +2 in December 2000.

The highest net satisfaction with the administration of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo was +27, which happened in March 2001 and again in November 2001.  This time the change in administration produced an increase of 27 – 2 = 25 points in net satisfaction.  Eventually the rating not only declined, but turned negative for almost all of 2005 to 2010, and finally bottomed at a “bad” -45 in March 2010.

The new administration of President Benigno Aquino III started with an outstanding net satisfaction of +64 in September 2010, for a tremendous leap of 64 + 45 = 109 points in net satisfaction from that of the outgoing administration. (Note that this was despite the bad publicity from the Luneta hostage-incident in August.) Thus its initial rating was fully 28 points above the previous record-high under Erap.

Notwithstanding the achievement of its first quarter, Mr. Aquino’s administration maintained its net satisfaction rating at +64 in its second quarter. The drop of 18 points from the +64 of November 2011 to the +46 of March 2011 was described by SWS as a change from “very good” (the range of +50 to +69) to “good” (the range of +30 to +49).

In my opinion, the journalists who call it a “plunge” or a “plummet” merely give away the limitations of their English vocabulary.  Public opinion cannot be changed by distorted interpretations of survey numbers, any more than votes can be changed by fake election surveys.

A net satisfaction of +46 is something that no previous administration ever enjoyed, in the last 23 years.  So it is definitely not a handicap for the current administration.  It is simply not as high as +64.  The honeymoon is not as intense as before, but it isn’t over.  Did it have to remain intense?

There is no cause for an administration to be apologetic or nervous for not keeping its net satisfaction rating in the +60s, the +50s, or even the +40s, since none of these were ever achieved prior to the latter half of 2010.  Being in the +30s is already good.  For this, good governance is what matters, rather than good publicity. I believe that the people are capable of sifting out the truth from the garbage.

In particular, the SWS March 2011 survey found record-high net satisfaction with the administration for: “setting a good example of public morality” (+44); “reconciliation with Muslim rebels” (+32); “reconciliation with communist rebels” (+31); “suppressing politicians with private armies in Mindanao” (+24); and “deciding quickly on important problems” (+23).  On the other hand, it observed that enthusiasm about “ensuring no hunger” (+5) and “fighting inflation” (net zero) dropped in the past two quarters.  Actually, the administration’s lowest rating was in “resolving the Maguindanao massacre case with justice”; SWS survey numbers on this have been reported to the government, and will be published soon.

A good satisfaction rating makes it easier for an administration to pass important legislation despite opposition. I call for: (a) meaningful sin taxes, and (b) meaningful responsible parenthood/reproductive health/family planning support for the poor.

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Contact SWS: www.sws.org.ph or mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph.