US elections: Magic number is 270

On Wednesday (Tuesday in the United States) Americans will troop to the polls to elect a president and vice president who will lead them for the next four years. The incumbent President Barack Obama is in a tight race against a strong challenger, Mitt Romney, the Republican standard-bearer. All national poll figures indicating leads for either Obama or Romney are within a margin of error. This means that the race may depend not on the results of the nationwide popular vote, but on how a uniquely American institution known as the Electoral College will decide the contest.

In 2000, Texas Governor George W. Bush, the Republican candidate, defeated Vice President Al Gore in one of the closest elections in US history. Gore received more of the nationwide popular vote than Bush but lost the Electoral College count when Bush narrowly defeated him in Florida. Nearly 3 million voted for Al Gore in the Sunshine State. George Bush beat him by a mere 537 votes. By virtue of this razor-thin victory, Florida’s 27 electoral votes went to Bush. The votes for Gore had no impact on the national election.

What is the Electoral College?

According to Wikipedia, the Electoral College is the institution that officially elects the president and vice president of the United States every four years. (Most Filipinos think that the US elections are decided by the popular vote.) The electors are chosen by each of the 50 states of the Union and by the District of Columbia, but not by other territorial possessions such as Guam and Puerto Rico. The number of electors is 538, based on the total voting membership of the United States Congress (435 representatives and 100 senators), and three electors from the District of Columbia.

Voters in each state and the District of Columbia cast ballots to select electors pledged to presidential and vice presidential candidates. In nearly all states, electors are awarded on a winner-take-all basis to the candidate who wins the most votes in that state. Although no elector is required by federal law to honor a pledge, in the overwhelming majority of cases each elector votes as pledged. The winning number is 270 electoral votes, which is one-half plus one of the total 538 votes.

Critics of the system argue that the Electoral College is undemocratic and gives “swing” states (states that move from one party to another) disproportionate influence in the elections. On the other hand, proponents say that the Electoral College is an important feature of federalism in the United States and that it protects the rights of smaller states.

With the current race so close, the question has been asked: What happens if Obama and Romney are tied in the Electoral College with 269 votes each?

The latest issue of Time magazine carries an article by Massimo Calabresi on what the Constitution provides in case of a tie vote.

Briefly, on November 6, the country votes for the members of the Electoral College. The elected members then gather on December 17 to select the president and vice president. On January 6, the US Congress counts the Electoral College ballots. If no one gets 270 votes, the newly elected House of Representatives chooses the president while the Senate chooses the vice president. With the Republicans in control of the House, it is possible that Romney would be chosen president while a Democrat-controlled Senate could vote for Joe Biden.

Now in such a delicate situation, anything can happen. Electors initially pledged to certain candidates may change their minds since only 26 states have laws requiring their electors to vote for the person they were chosen to support.

The chances of this kind of scenario taking place are remote. But with the race so close, veterans of the Bush-Gore fight in Florida in 2000 are preparing for legal battles that may crop up. There have been numerous constitutional amendments that have been introduced in Congress seeking to alter the Electoral College or replace it altogether with a direct popular vote system. So far, none of these proposals have been able to get the approval of Congress.

Incidentally in 2008, Senator Barack Obama captured 365 electoral votes to Sen. John McCain’s 173.

The other election

Two days after the US elections, the world’s second-largest economy will witness a once-in-a-decade leadership change. President and Communist Party Secretary General Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao will step down from power, giving way to a new generation led by Vice President Xi Jinping and First Vice Premier Li Keqiang. For the Philippines, perhaps even more significant than the November 6 US presidential elections is the transfer of power that will take place in China.

More important than the presidency is the position of chairman of the Central Military Commission that Xi will eventually assume. In this respect, Xi benefits from the fact that many of the present crop of generals in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) share the same personal experience with him as children of veteran revolutionaries. Xi himself served as secretary to former Defense Minister Geng Biao.

Under Hu Jintao, China’s economy grew from seventh-largest in the world to its present status, second only to the United States; per capita income has nearly tripled and hundreds of millions of people have been brought out of poverty. However, there has been little change in its political stance. It remains the “biggest security state in the world,” with a population of some 1.3 billion under the tight control of its leaders.

Some interesting notes on the new leader Xi Jinping: He is the son of a Communist Party elder closely identified with Mao Zedong. He studied chemical engineering in Beijing’s Tsinghua University and his current wife is a popular folk singer with the People’s Liberation Army. His only child, a daughter, studies at Harvard University under an assumed name presumably for security reasons.

Another election

On November 30, our National Sports Associations (NSAs) will be holding elections for the post of Philippine Olympic Committee president. Current head Peping Cojuangco is running for a third term. Judging by the articles I have come across on this subject, Cojuangco appears to be a shoo-in for re-election. You just have to ask yourself these questions: In terms of sports development, is the country better prepared today for future international competitions than it was in the past? Is an Olympic gold for the Philippines in sight in the 2016 Rio Summer Games?