Predicting the US election

Since the presidential candidates Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are equally popular with the American people, the popular vote in November may well be a tie, according to the US national opinion polls.

However, since the President of the United States is not elected by the voters directly but by the electoral college votes (ECVs) of the 50 states and the District of Columbia (DC), the way to predict the outcome is to use the statewide polls, not the national polls.

The candidate with the majority vote in a state wins all the ECVs of that state (with minor exceptions). The ECVs of all states add up to 538.  The candidate who gets 270 ECVs becomes the next president (see   www.270towin.com).

Reds. There were 22 states that went consistently Republican—colored red in the TV maps—in the three past presidential elections: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.  These have 180 ECVs.

Blues. There were 19 states, counting DC as a “state,” that went consistently Democratic, or “blue,” in the three past presidential elections: California, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin.  These have 242 ECVs.

Greys. The remaining 10 are the swing states: Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia, with a total of 116 ECVs.  Except one, these states all swung from red in 2004 to blue in 2008.  The exception was New Hampshire, which in 2004 already switched to blue. Iowa and New Mexico were blue in 2000, and became “balik-blue” in 2008.

If the blues stay blue, and the reds stay red, then Obama leads by 242 to 180, and only needs 28 more ECVs to reach the magic 270.  As of Sept. 6, the Huffington Post (elections.huffingtonpost.com) scored the race at Obama 247 (211 strong), Romney 191 (175 strong), and 100 as tossups (including blues Michigan and Wisconsin). On the other hand,   270towin   scored the race as Obama 221 (131 safe), Romney 182 (58 safe), and 135 tossups.

Since Mitt Romney was governor of Massachusetts, and his father George Romney was governor of Michigan, might these states go red in 2012? Not according to the Massachusetts polls: Obama led by +22 on May 29-31 (Western New England University, +/- 4.4 error margin), +12 on May 25-31 (Boston Globe, by the University of New Hampshire, +/- 3.8), and +25 on May 20-22 (Suffolk University/7NEWS, +/- 4).

And not according to the Michigan polls, since Obama was +6 on Aug. 18-20 (Detroit News/WDIV/WZZM poll by Glengariff Group [Republican pollster], +/- 4).  But Wisconsin, where Obama was +2 on Aug. 15-21 (Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News, +/- 3), is, I agree, a tossup.

The latest statewide polls in the swing states, below, seem to show more of blue than red; my source is the subscription section of PollingReport.com.

Florida (29 ECVs), bluish: Obama +4 on Aug. 22-26 (CNN/Time/ORC, +/- 3.5); but Obama only +3 on Aug. 15-21 (Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News, +/- 3).

Ohio (18 ECVs), bluish: Obama +3 on Aug. 16-21 (University of Cincinatti Ohio Poll,

+/- 3.4); Obama +6 on Aug. 15-21 (Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News Poll,

+/- 3); dead heat on Aug. 15-25 (Columbus Dispatch mail survey, +/- 2.1).

North Carolina (15 ECVs), barely red: Romney +4 on Aug. 25-30 (Elon University for the Charlotte Observer and The News and Observer, +/- 3).

Virginia (13 ECVs), barely blue: Obama +4 on July 31-Aug. 6 (Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News Poll, +/- 3).

Indiana (11 ECVs), red as of five months ago: Romney +9 on March 26-27 (Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll, +/- 4.5).

Colorado (9 ECVs), confusing: Obama +4 on Aug. 21-22 (Keating Research [Democratic pollster], +/- 4.4) but Romney +5 on July 31-Aug. 6 (Quinnipiac University, +/- 3).

Iowa (6 ECVs), dead heat on May 22-24 (NBC News/Marist, +/- 3), three months ago.

Nevada (6 ECVs), tossup: Obama +2 on May 22-24 (NBC News/Marist, +/- 3), three months ago.

New Mexico (5 ECVs), blue as of three months ago: Obama +13 on May 16-21 (Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates [D] for Patriot Majority USA and Project New America, n = 502; error margin unstated but normally +/- 4.4 for this sample size).

New Hampshire (4 ECVs), bluish: Obama +3 on Aug. 1-12 (WMUR Granite State Poll by University of New Hampshire, +/- 4.2)

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SWS is saddened by the sudden passing of anthropologist Gerard Rixhon, a Belgian-born Filipino citizen who worked for 20 years in Sulu and Tawi-Tawi, where he founded Notre Dame of Sibutu high school, headed Notre Dame of Siasi high school, and directed the Coordinated Investigation of Sulu Culture at Notre Dame of Jolo College.  He recorded oral traditions of the Sama and the Tausug, and contributed much to the understanding of clan feuding (rido) in Mindanao.

Gerry became an SWS Fellow in 1994; he was a very regular participant in SWS activities. When he died of a stroke last Aug. 31, at age 87, with his wife Felicitas Consignado Rixhon by his side, he was still on the research roster of the

Department of Sociology and Anthropology and the Institute of Philippine Culture of Ateneo de Manila University.

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Contact SWS: www.sws.org.ph or mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph.