Many people dismiss Chinese incursions into the West Philippine Sea as merely saber-rattling. The accompanying rhetoric trumpets China’s superpower status, emphasizing its Asian dominance and warning other challengers to leave the area to China’s beneficence. Diplomats downplay the Spratlys squabble, hoping that silence will persuade China to tone down its claims.
But what if all this isn’t just for show?
Consider another scenario. China’s northern regions are turning into deserts. Many other areas are ravaged by pollution, created by the rapid agro-industrial development of the recent past and exacerbated by environmental insensitivity. Natural disasters and a slowing economy point to the need for new lands that will be able to produce food for its teeming population. After entering into land and resource deals with African nations, China is now looking at areas closer to home. The Philippines has the land and water that can help fill that need—and it isn’t that far from the “renegade province” Taiwan and other islands along the South China Sea that China claims.
Provoking tensions and escalating reactions could lead to a pretext for more advanced military action that no country in the area can win against the Chinese forces. As such, the United States and its allies, notably the United Kingdom, Australia and Japan, may need to step in to maintain Asian equilibrium. And while all this is happening, war drums will beat, making it easy for anyone to make a misstep that could trigger conflagration, as if the Middle East and African crises aren’t tensions enough for the entire planet.
The Philippines would do well to discuss joint programs with China to ensure food supplies for China in exchange for environmental concessions, investment commitments and market linkages. Chinese needs and Philippine resources can be matched such that mutual benefit and national interests can be discovered and satisfied.
Ecology and economics could provide the beginning for everyone to step away from a confrontation. Perhaps this process can be started by the private sector—as politics undoubtedly limits the flexibilities of Chinese and Philippine leaders. The sooner this process begins, the easier all of us can sleep soundly at night.
—JOSE OSIAS,
jzosias@gmail.com