Noah’s deluge déjà vu

There has been no letup in the rainfall since the week before that it was easy to imagine the need for Noah’s ark, metaphorically if not literally. On the shelves of the University of the Philippines’ Center for Integrative and Development Studies, I found a study that quotes a 1905 American-era study of the storm-water drainage of Manila: “It is unquestionable that the removal of storm water must be undertaken in drains entirely separate from the sewerage carriers,” noting that the Spanish-built estero served both functions at the same time (“Pressures of Urbanization: Flood Control and Drainage in Metro Manila,” edited by UP engineering professors Leonardo Q. Liongson, Guillermo Q. Tabios, and Peter P.M. Castro). We were all reminded of this last week when Manila Bay regurgitated garbage back onto Roxas Boulevard, and again this week when torrential rains deluged Manila.

Significantly, that 1905 scientific study called for information that seemed like a major project for its time: “Before a definite design may be determined … observations on estero flow and groundwater levels must be taken and the results tabulated, and gaugings of streams and present sewers recorded for the definite absorption and runoff coefficients. The records of the Weather Bureau must be redrawn [and improved]. Auxiliary gauges should be set up in Tondo and Sampaloc to obtain more definite knowledge of the intensity of rainfall, as the local conditions are apparently quite different there as observed at the station in Ermita (location of Jesuit Observatory).”

I cite this 1905 suggestion at length because barely a month ago, precisely one such system was put in place with 21st-century technology.  It goes by the felicitous title “Project Noah,” short for Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards. It was organized by the Department of Science and Technology (DOST), including its own Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (the famous Pagasa), and manned by scientists from UP Diliman. When they launched Noah on July 6, little could they have imagined that they would have their baptism of flood starting the first day of August.

Project Noah was conceptualized right after Tropical Storm “Sendong” ravaged Cagayan de Oro and Iligan Cities in December 2011, and President Aquino noted that even after Tropical Storm “Ondoy,” we seem to have not learned our lessons. I spoke to UP geology professor CP David, project leader of Noah and Stanford University Ph.D. He recalled that soon after Sendong hit on Dec. 16, Science and Technology Secretary Mario Montejo got their team working straight through the Christmas vacation and into the new year.

(I actually tried reaching other UP offices to ask about Noah, even volunteering the names of people who were involved. The members of the staff were most courteous and cheerful despite the rains, but all they could give me were, believe it or not, the UP trunk line and some local numbers. I could’ve either walked or taken an Ikot jeep to visit each one of the buildings they mentioned, but I felt it bizarre to write on modern technology using primitive modes of transport.)

The purpose of Noah is to provide real-time information on weather, water levels and flooding, and make this accessible to the public via the Internet (and eventually, I understand, Twitter as well). It aims to install 1,000 weather stations all over the country, equipped with rain gauges, water-level sensors, and other weather forecasting tools. In the past month, in cooperation with the Smart Telecommunications network, they have installed 200 such weather stations. Smart has partnered with the government to allow Noah to locate its weather stations in Smart cell sites, which provide two advantages. First, the cell sites are secure, and ensure the safety of the Noah weather sensors. Second, the cell sites offer a ready signal, because the Noah sensors update and transmit their data every 15 minutes.

Although Noah eventually aims to integrate flood early warning systems along 18 major river systems, it currently aims at six river systems: Marikina, Cagayan de Oro, Iligan, Bicol, Pampanga, and Agno. Newspapers report that the goal is to give at least 6 hours’ advance reports.

I checked out Noah’s website (https://noah.dost.gov.ph) after I listened to an ANC interview of UP engineering professor

Eric Paringit. It is user-friendly and gives a visual report of, say, the amount of rainfall expected and potential flooding in certain areas. The Noah report of a mass of “precipitable water” shown on ANC was actually confirmed hours later when that water actually fell.

What Noah does is enable ordinary people to get reliable and processed scientific information on their own. Such advanced notices were hitherto available only to professional meteorologists or to government disaster relief agencies. I can only imagine the potential of placing such information in the hands of proactive volunteer groups. Since massive flooding of this week’s scale is too big for the government alone to address, Noah enables civil society to take preventive disaster action. The relocation of endangered communities to higher ground can be done in advance of the deluge.

If there is one piece of information that I hope Noah can make graphic for all to see, it is the rate of outflow of water from Pasig River into Manila Bay. UP geology professor Mahar Lagmay has shown that artificial fishpens at the mouth of the Pasig have impeded and slowed down the exit of floodwaters into Manila Bay. Noah should bring this straight to the public mind, so that we can separate the geographic from the social causes of flooding, and put the blame where it squarely belongs.

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