Little accomplishment to show

Upon completing the second year of his administration, President Aquino had little to claim as economic and social reform accomplishment other than the decapitated head of former Chief Justice Renato Corona as proof of the invincibility of his self-proclaimed “incorruptible” presidency.

In assessing the administration’s accomplishments, Mr. Aquino’s spokesperson Abigail Valte was forced to admit, in fear of contradiction, that its “biggest achievement” so far was “the change in the mindset of our people.” This is a safe assessment because it can’t be quantified with hard statistics on gross domestic product (GDP) growth or on the number of people suffering from hunger. “The people are more open to the reforms being pursued by the government,” she said. “Our countrymen are now engaged… We can already see the engagement which shows that there is now a shift in attitude toward government not as an oppressor.”

But where is proof of this “shift”? Aren’t we still traumatized by the vindictiveness with which the campaign to rid the government of corrupt transactions of the past regime was carried out, in order to demonstrate that the administration means business in its “daang matuwid”?

The administration admits that not much headway has been made as far as systemic change is concerned. “The greatest setback could be that we still have to do more,” Valte said. “There’s still much to be done. The President is very conscious of the period that he has been given—six years, no more, no less. And that’s what we are looking at. There is so much to be done, yet too little time. We are trying to see what action will have maximum impact in the four years the President has.”

What remains to be done? Remember that the goal is not just to lessen corruption or take it out completely but also to make reforms systemic. It cannot be that reforms will only be for six years. How long will the public have to endure a do-nothing government until these planned systemic reforms take off? How long will the economy continue to take the back seat to governance aspirations? I’m afraid that under this administration’s intangible priorities, and given its lazy work habits, it will soon be overtaken by events.

The midterm elections will be held next May, a time for the renewal of a popular mandate that gave Mr. Aquino a huge vote as well as control of the House of Representatives. The Aquino administration has used the enormous capital it gained in the May 2010 polls in internecine warfare with the preceding administration and in battling to enfeeble the Supreme Court in the campaign to impeach Corona, at the same time allowing economic growth to decline.

The Senate election, in which 12 of its 24 seats are up for grabs, is the crucial arena; on it depends how much power the President will wield vis-à-vis Congress in the second half of his term. With the battle over Corona’s impeachment out of the way, the focus of the executive-legislative agenda will shift to the economy and social issues, thereby depoliticizing the agenda. If the Senate as the impeachment court played a central role in the political agenda during the conflict between the President and the judiciary, it is likely to be the determinant of policy priorities in the second half of the Aquino presidency, with an accent on economic and social issues.

Administration control of the Senate is not expected after May 2013. It is likely to remain as fractious as it was during the past two years.

It is hard to accept the administration’s claim that “these two years have been marked by genuine, meaningful change—in the way the government is run, in the way our country is viewed by the international community, and in the way we aspire for and view our own future.” Or: “No longer is the Filipino mired in paralysis and despair; he has seen the seemingly difficult task achieved, and is one with the government in creating a society that is truly just, prosperous and equitably progressive.”

It remains to be seen whether social equity will be enhanced by Mr. Aquino’s mere promise to effect the transfer of Hacienda Luisita titles to farm workers.

By how much will a fractious Senate serve as an agent of social change? In the May 20-26 Pulse Asia survey of 2013 senatorial preferences, six of those on top are incumbent senators seeking reelection (Francis Escudero, Loren Legarda, Alan Peter Cayetano, Gregorio Honasan, Aquilino Pimentel III, and Antonio Trillanes). The others are two sitting congressmen (Jackie Enrile and JV Ejercito) and a former senator (Transportation  Secretary Mar Roxas, a Liberal Party leader). The LP, the President’s party, is not in control of the Senate and, given the multiparty composition of the chamber, no ideological alignment is possible in the near future. It would be hard for the administration to take control of its agenda.

In the formation of tickets, the administration is divided. Vice President Jejomar Binay, former President Joseph Estrada and Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile are forming their own ticket. But according to the Pulse Asia survey, Binay ranks as the nation’s most appreciated and trusted public official, with approval and trust ratings of 81 percent and 78 percent, respectively. The survey indicated that Binay and Estrada wield considerable influence over voters, with 73 percent of respondents saying they would vote for senatorial candidates endorsed by Binay, and 51 percent saying they would vote for Erap nominees.

President Aquino emerged as the second top endorser, with 66 percent of respondents saying they would vote for his candidates. In the first half of his term, the President has emerged as a lame duck. Let’s see whether those he endorses in May will end up in a poll massacre.