The interesting thing about Koko Pimentel finally dropping out of UNA is not that he did. That was pretty much a foregone conclusion after he made his disaffection, or indeed plain disgust, at having to run with the one person who stole four years of his term known to the world. Or specifically known to his godfather, literal and political, Joseph Estrada, with whom he finally met last week after avoiding him for some time. Under no circumstances would he run with Miguel Zubiri, he said, and he was true to his word.
The interesting thing is, well, there are really two interesting things there.
One is the fact that for many of us Koko Pimentel dropping out of UNA remains surprising. You see that quite paradoxically in the fact that the public was not particularly aghast or incensed by Erap’s declarations of dismay that he could not get an audience with Koko to thresh out his “differences” with Zubiri. Elsewhere in the world where some modicum of principle or conscience or decency still underlies politics, that would have been mind-boggling. You want the person who got cheated out of his term to actually run with, and endorse, the fellow who did it to him? And you call his beef with the other fellow a “difference”?
In fact, elsewhere in the world where some modicum of principle or conscience or decency still underlies politics, the question would not be, “Is Koko in his right mind to leave UNA?” The question would be, “Is UNA in its right mind to keep Zubiri?” Yet the second question was never even raised, only the first was.
Erap’s stated intention to get Koko to forgive and forget Zubiri was met with equanimity by the public. Or indeed by commentators. At least I didn’t hear people scoff at or ridicule the idea, or vituperate violently against it. Zubiri himself continued to take the tack after Koko broke with UNA. “Today,” he said, “is a sad day for the people of Visayas and Mindanao whose leaders have been clamoring for unity among us both to have more representation for the region. I truly wanted us to mend our differences for the sake of more representation for the region.”
One is tempted to say that nothing could be more hilarious than the residents of Visayas and Mindanao wanting to be represented by people they did not vote for. One is tempted to say that nothing could be more insulting to the people of Visayas and Mindanao than to be depicted as being so mindless they would have the wolf lie with the sheep and call it unity. But in fact that line doesn’t sound so discordant at all to many Filipino ears. That’s the entire pitch of UNA: They’re there to unite the country. Proof of it is that they have everyone in their roster—Marcos people, Gloria people, Erap people, and—who knows?—maybe even P-Noy people. Forgive and forget, however the sin is unforgivable, however the crime is unforgettable.
And the public doesn’t find it hilarious or insulting.
The second thing that’s interesting in Koko Pimentel’s bolting UNA is people’s perception of how it affects his chances at the polls. Koko himself admits he’s taking a risk dropping out of UNA. “My chances of winning are better if I am endorsed by President Estrada, Vice President Binay and Senate President Enrile. But that’s life. Sometimes, you cannot have it all. I am willing to take the risk. I want to campaign with a happy heart.”
His father, Nene, agrees: “There is a price to it naturally. You don’t just ignore Erap who is a proven vote-getter and has the means to spread his causes.”
And of course Erap agrees even more. He warned Koko before he left about the consequences of his action. He said Koko would be losing his endorsement as well as those of Juan Ponce Enrile and Jojo Binay, which collectively held more value at the polls than P-Noy’s.
Is this an accurate view of political, or electoral, strengths?
Yes. The country remains trapped in trapo culture, as shown by the lack of public approbation at what Koko has done, or indeed conversely the lack of public outrage at UNA not just wanting to keep Zubiri but wanting to keep him at all costs. P-Noy himself was a bolt from the blue, an unexpected interruption in the normal flow of things. He has of course done much to lay out the daang matuwid, quite heroically managing to impeach no less than the chief justice. But that same victory has also strengthened the builders of the daan that’s far from matuwid, who are Enrile and Erap who contributed their forces in the Senate to Renato Corona’s downfall. Those two are part of the triumvirate, the third one being Jojo Binay, who runs UNA.
The interesting question that these interesting things raise is: What happens to P-Noy’s legacy afterward?
UNA wins in next year’s elections, and Binay wins in 2016, particularly with Jinggoy as vice, you are looking at a grand restoration. A grand restoration of Erap’s house, with its record—one officially entered in the books by his conviction in the courts, however it was in Gloria’s time—of looting the country dry, and current policy of reconciling with the Marcoses and even with Gloria to go by Mitos Magsaysay’s inclusion in UNA’s senatorial roster. Or indeed to go by Erap’s favorite mantra of forgiving and forgetting. You couple that with such things as the Ampatuans probably not getting convicted for a growing lack of witnesses and a Romeo Jalosjos making a bid for western Mindanao, and you have the stirrings of a Gloria resuscitation as well.
Can the daang matuwid survive these developments? Or will it prove like a road built by a bad contractor that grows potholes that can swallow a car, if not cave in on itself, at the first lash of sun and rain? Something to think about.
Hell, something to be alarmed about.