OPM numbers

The National Statistics Office has released the results of the 2010 national census, with lots of information that can be used for school contests, TV game shows and good-to-know conversations. In a while I’m going to let you know which are the smallest provinces and the largest barangays in the country, population-wise. Population isn’t just a matter of “smallest” and “biggest” but also of velocity of growth rates, so I’ll also give figures on the fastest- and slowest-growing regions and cities.

There’s more though to all this than numbers and “-est” (slowest, biggest) for trivial pursuits. The censuses are expensive, but are necessary for government to work out economic development plans, social services, even determining political jurisdictions and responsibilities.  For the private sector, wise businesses will do well to look into the numbers to explore marketing opportunities.

Censuses, too, aren’t just population figures and birth rates. The censuses also look into migration, which in turn is about people in search of a better life, drawn by promises of land and economic opportunity.  Reviewing the latest census, I was struck by how surveys speak too of people’s dreams and, sadly, broken promises or, in the young’s slang, OPM (Oh Promise Me).

Let’s look at the figures now.  The latest figures show our population grew from 76.5 million to 92.3 million between 2000 and 2010, or an annual population growth rate of 1.9 percent.

The largest population, by political unit, is registered in Quezon City with 2.7 million people. The smallest population is in Batanes, which grew from 16,476 in 2000 to 16,604 in 2010, a stupendous growth rate of 0.08 percent. We will see later that Batanes’ population is smaller than many barangays in Metro Manila.

The population of the National Capital Region grew from 9.9 million to 11.8 million during the last decade, but this is no longer the country’s fastest-growing region in terms of population. Instead, it is Calabarzon with an annual population growth rate of 3.07 percent, much higher than the national average. Calabarzon is composed of the provinces of Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal and Quezon. Central Luzon is the second fastest-growing region with a 2.14-percent annual population growth rate. The provinces here are Aurora, Bataan, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac and Zambales.

The numbers are showing the emergence of a Mega Manila, with Calabarzon as the main expansion area and Central Luzon being the next growth area.

High fertility, low population

What is happening in the rest of the country? The census shows population growth rates below the national average for most of the other regions. It’s not that birth rates are low. The paradox is that it is the regions with the highest fertility rates that also have the lowest population growth rates. Eastern Visayas, for example, with the highest fertility rate in the country, ends up with the second lowest population growth rate.

Reviewing the other regions’ figures and information from studies on economic development and migration, we find that regions with the highest fertility rates also tend to be the poorest, and so are the ones with the most migration, toward Metro Manila and other urban centers.

This pattern is most striking in Mindanao, once touted as the Promised Land because of its vast and fertile agricultural lands. Today, the population in rural Mindanao is dwindling, as young people flock to cities, to escape poverty and, in some parts, civil strife. The three cities with the highest population growth rates in the country show this “Promised Lands within the Promised Land” phenomenon: Cotabato City (5.19 percent), Lapu-Lapu City (4.91 percent), Puerto Princesa (3.24 percent).

What we’re seeing too are older cities having slower population growth and adjoining areas taking on more people. Thus, Lapu-Lapu and Mandaue cities have faster population growth rates than Cebu City. In the National Capital Region, the City of Manila’s population actually shrunk between 1990 and 2000. Then from 2000 to 2010, despite Mayor Lito Atienza’s ban on family planning services in government, Manila grew by a measly 0.44 percent. NCR’s smallest barangays are in Manila: Barangay 700 in Malate with 42 people, Barangay 630 in Sampaloc with 48, and Barangay 652 in Port Area with 74.

The highest population growth rates today in the NCR are in Taguig (3.26 percent), Pasig (2.86 percent), Parañaque (2.72 percent) and Caloocan (2.37 percent). What’s so disturbing is that the fastest population growth rates in metropolitan areas are in slum areas, including huge colonies of informal settlers, all political hot spots as we have been seeing the past few days in Parañaque’s urban warfare.

Refugees

This should not be surprising since land and housing are so expensive now in most parts of Metro Manila. In our cities then, especially those in the NCR, we see a subset of “refugees” who first fled rural poverty and then are now struggling again with poverty in the concrete jungle and gravitating toward slum areas which, dismal as they can be, still beckon with promise.

You can see this in the 10 largest barangays in the NCR. I’m going to name them from the 10th, going upwards: Addition Hills, Mandaluyong (86,731);  Gen. T. de Leon, Valenzuela (89,209);  Barangay 178 (Camarin), Caloocan (97,068); Holy Spirit, Quezon City  (101,385); Muntinlupa Poblacion (103,104); Payatas, Quezon City (119,053); Pinagbuhatan, Quezon City (126,503); Batasan Hills, Quezon City (150,764); Commonwealth, Quezon City (186,543); and—may I have the envelope please—Barangay 176 in Caloocan with 243,890.

Caloocan’s Barangay 176 is Bagong Silang, a name that speaks again of promise when people first moved into this 586-hectare area. Today, Bagong Silang evokes more of the high birth rates rather than renaissance. Quezon City, too, was a land of promise when it was first planned, but now has several of the largest and impoverished barangays in the country. To add to the ones I already named, we have Pasong Tamo (85,954), Bagong Silangan (78,222), Matandang Balara (71,220), Sauyo (74,740), Bahay Toro (69,550), Culiat (68,881). At UP Diliman, Chancellor Caesar Saloma recently shared the results of the university’s own census, showing some 80,000 informal settlers on campus.

Note that the most densely populated barangays are in the northern part of the NCR, in Quezon City and Caloocan City. This is also the area of the Batasang Pambansa, where laws, promising a better life and better opportunities, are churned out.

Going through the census figures I was struck, too, by so many barangays named by numbers. For example Tondo’s are Barangays 1 to 267. How can people develop a sense of place, of identity, and of home, when their barangay is just a mere number? But then, maybe, that was the intent: no-name settlements, where people are faceless numbers, important only as votes to be courted with more dreams and promises when elections come by, only to be forgotten after the votes, or census figures, are in.