A Burma preelection survey

Even in tightly controlled Burma (Myanmar), the people’s voices are beginning to be heard through opinion polling. Just before the by-election on April 1, a survey was done in the Ayeyarwaddy, Yangon, and NayPyidaw regions for Mizzima News, an India-based agency run by Burmese exiles.

The poll was done on March 24-31 on a sample of 362 respondents (5 percent error margin) by a team of eight experienced enumerators and community organizers. The questionnaire design, pilot testing, and training for the survey were done in Yangon by resource personnel from the Community Response Group. ComReG is “a collective of Myanmar nationals and international volunteers who work together to create positive change across Myanmar,” per its Facebook page.

Findings of the Mizzima poll:

85 percent of the respondents said they knew about the coming by-election; 12 percent did not know.

85 percent said they planned to vote; 11 percent said they did not.  The intention to vote rises sharply with schooling: less than 10 percent among illiterates, over 60 percent among those with primary education, over 80 percent among those with middle education, over 90 percent among those with higher education, over 95 percent among graduates, and 100 percent among post-graduates.

84 percent said they knew the method of voting; 15 percent said they did not. The sources of their knowledge were, in percentages: constituents 20, brochures 20, friends 18, family 15, television 11, radio 6, past experience 3, and others 3. [I assume the term “constituent” in the report means “candidate” —MM.]

87 percent said they knew the name of their constituent and the party name of the constituency.

74 percent said they knew the policy of their constituent. Sources of their knowledge, in percentages: brochures 30, constituent 28, family 14, friends 10, TV 9, radio 7, and others 2.

Predicting the election outcome. “Which party will you vote for?”  Answer percentages: NLD 60, USDP 32, NUP 2, no answer 6.  This is the bottom line result that establishes the credibility of the survey. A consistent majority of the vote was enough for the NLD to win almost all of the seats at stake.

By winning 43 seats in the by-election, Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League of Democracy (NLD) will hold 6.4 percent of seats in the parliament. The ruling United Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) and the Shan Nationalities Democratic Party won one seat each.

“Why do you choose that party?” Answer percentages: party policy and constituent 45, party activities 23, qualification and capability of constituent 19, no answer 13.

“Which party do you think will win this by-election?” Answer percentages: NLD 58, USDP 31, NUP 1, no answer 10.

“Do you think the current Myanmar political situation has changed positively?” Answer percentages: Yes 42, No 14, don’t know 13, no answer 31.

“Do you think current Myanmar politics has improved?”  Answer percentages: Yes 50, No 6, don’t want to answer 44.

Yes-No percentages for the question “Do you think current Myanmar politics has improved”:  illiterates 0-5, primary education 20-17, middle education 37-17, higher education 57-8, graduates 52-15, post-graduates 33-11. Balances from 100 percent are don’t know/no answer (DK/RA).

Yes-No percentages, by age, for the question “Do you believe the socioeconomics of Myanmar will progress in the next three years”: 18-24 years old (y/o) 55-7, 25-39 y/o 53-7, 40-60 y/o 47-5, over 60 y/o 39-5. Missing balances from 100 are DK/RA.

The survey report concluded with the following feedback from the ComReG interviewers:

Most of the respondents who are government staffs from NayPyiDaw are getting a chance to buy a mobile phone provided by USDP and plan to vote for it.

Some interviewers observed that some female respondents are still afraid to vote.

In the Yangon and the Dagon seik kan area, the USDP conducted a campaign to repair roads.

Some respondents said they would vote for the USDP because they are in debt to it for providing short-term loans.

Most respondents said they are voting for the NLD because of Aung San Suu Kyi.

I hope it will not take too long before opinion polling can openly be done and then freely published in Burma.

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The Mizzima News Agency (www.mizzima.com) was founded in 2008 by three Burmese exiles in India. Specializing in Burma-related news and multimedia, it bills itself as “a rare window into events affecting the lives of the Burmese people.”

Mizzima went online in 2002, and now has 50 paid employees, including Burmese and foreign journalists reporting from Burma, India, Bangladesh, Thailand and China.  It has a head office in New Delhi, a liaison office in Bangkok, a news bureau in Chiang Mai, an office in Kolkata (India), and underground units in Burma.

Mizzima works closely with the Southeast Asian Press Alliance, the International Media Support and the Committee to Protect Journalists. It is a founding member of Burma News International (BMI), a network of Burma’s independent media organizations formed outside the country.  In May 2007, the International Press Institute honored Mizzima as “Free Media Partner 2007”.

A postelection interview of Mizzima founder Soe Myint by Radio Free Asia is found in “Suu Kyi supporters relish victory,” April 3 (www.livetv.ru.en).

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Contact SWS: www.sws.org.ph or mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph.