Less poor, still hungry

Mock-humor seems to characterize Malacañang’s reaction to the recent survey of the Social Weather Stations, which showed some 4.5 million families in the country going hungry in the last quarter of 2011, up by some 400,000 families from the previous quarter. Presidential spokesperson Abigail Valte said the two surveys were “statistically identical.” She said the last-quarter survey showed self-rated poverty going down to just 45 percent in December, from 52 percent in the previous survey. In short, even though people who rate themselves poor have gone down, many still remain hungry and in want. We don’t know if this is what Valte means by “statistically identical.”

Considering indeed that the hunger rates in the two quarters are statistically alike given the margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, Valte might have a point. But a survey in the first quarter of 2012 may give everyone a better perspective on whether or not policies of the Aquino administration to promote “inclusive growth” are indeed taking effect, as Valte claimed.

In the meantime, Valte said the Aquino administration would continue “to aggressively pursue programs meant to address the needs of vulnerable sectors” by expanding the coverage of the conditional cash transfer (CCT) program with a budget of P39.5 billion. In addition, Budget Secretary Florencio Abad has announced that some 198,000 indigent elderly will each receive a monthly pension of P500 this year after the government earmarked P1.2 billion for this segment of the population. The amount is 38 percent higher than the P871 million given out last year to senior citizens aged 75 and older. Also, the number of beneficiaries rose by 43 percent to 198,370 from the previous year’s 138,960.

We have always supported the CCT and social pensions since they’re more direct social safety net measures to shield the poor from hunger. But they should be carried out in tandem with effective government interventions in the economy. Moreover, loopholes in the CCT may have to be plugged in order for it to really aid its beneficiaries.

The Commission on Audit said the CCT beneficiaries in 2010 included people who owned hectares of land, cars, a six-door apartment, an Internet shop and a grains trading business—not exactly destitute folks in desperate need of up to P1,400 a month in assistance the government provides them. Other beneficiaries were local government employees and public school teachers who earned regular salaries. There were also those who were into illegal gambling and other vices.

While plugging the loopholes in the CCT and safety net programs, there’s also need for government planning and interventions in the economy. As it is, the Philippine economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, was estimated to have grown only between 3.6 and 4 percent in 2011, according to the National Economic Development Authority. This is due in large part to the double-digit decline in exports in the last half of the year, which is in sharp contrast to the growth in export of neighboring economies even amid global slowdown. Part of the problem here is that Philippine exports are concentrated in electronics, so there’s a need really to diversify our exports. But diversification would need proper economic planning, which leaves much to be desired.

To be sure, going by the lethargic government spending, the administration seems at a loss on where to invest and how to jump-start the economy. Inadequate infrastructure has impeded sustained growth so government must spend on public works. Infrastructure too will create more employment opportunities. It must be pointed out that the Philippines has not made a major structural transformation such that unemployment remains high, which exacerbates poverty and hunger. Four in every 10 working adults are either self-employed at menial jobs or unpaid family workers. Many are underemployed. All of them are vulnerable to crises and shocks that could easily hurtle them down the poverty trap. Without strong government spending and world recovery, higher growth in the next years may be wishful thinking, and poverty and hunger ratings may remain “statistically identical.”