What the survey says

A mainstream public opinion pollster, Pulse Asia, shifted its focus to the economy, from the administration’s smear campaign to humiliate impeached Supreme Court Chief Justice Renato Corona, with the release on Jan. 9 of a survey  that showed growing public disquiet over a stagnating economy during the first 18 months of the Aquino administration.

The survey, conducted nationwide from Nov. 10 to 23, 2011, found that 45 percent of Filipinos believed that the state of the national economy today is the same as it was a year ago. According to the survey, more Filipinos said that the state of the  economy deteriorated over the past 12 months (38 percent) against those saying it had improved (18 percent). This sentiment was expressed in response to the question:  “If you compare the state of the economy now with that of last year (2010), would  you say that the state of the national economy  is  better, same or worse now?”

Forty-five percent of the respondents said they believed that nothing changed in a positive or negative way, a figure lower than the 54 percent recorded in October 2010.  However, 38 percent said the economic situation worsened, up from 16 percent, while 18 percent said it improved, 12 percentage points down from 30 percent in  October 2010.   Close to half of those from  Classes ABC (47 percent), comprising the better off or middle classes, believed the economy had stagnated, and the D Class, (43 percent), the poor,  as well believed the economy had stagnated.

In Mindanao,  more than half of the respondents (57 percent) said the economy turned  for the worse, a view shared by 38 percent in both Classes ABC and D.  These figures indicate problem areas for electoral support in the 2013 off-year elections for half of the Senate seats,  considered a test at the half-way point of the Aquino administration.

Malacañang discounted these results, saying that it expected to see “those numbers go down, which is why we’ve hit the ground running for 2012.”  A Palace spokesperson was referring to the P72-billion stimulus package that  President  Aquino released in October last year to accelerate government spending and bolster the sluggish economic growth.

Very few Filipinos say that the economy is better now: in the National Capital Region (18 percent), Luzon (16 percent), Visayas (22 percent), Mindanao (17 percent), as well as classes D (19 percent), and classes ABC (all 16 percent.) Among those who say the economy is in  a worse state than a year ago,  66 percent were strongly affected by this perceived economic deterioration, 31 percent were somehow affected and only 3 percent did not feel the impact of the worsening economic condition.

On New Year’s Eve, President Aquino  drew a complacent picture of his achievements during the past 18 months,  including in the economic sector, which he has been criticized for neglecting and subordinating to his emphasis on his anti-corruption campaign focused on the alleged venalities of the past administration.

The President claimed the country had risen from the grave of corruption and poverty and cited a raft of achievements, including  substantial savings of P42 billion, creation of 2.1 million new jobs and  the development of a secret aquatic product for export which he did not identify. Citing a  labor force survey, he claimed that the administration had created “roughly 2.1 million new jobs as of   last October.”  He claimed P21 billion in savings after the country was given a credit upgrade by  international credit ratings agencies.  Another source of substantial savings, he said, was the increase in rice production which decreased the need to import the staple.  He said the government  saved “something like P7.7  billion from  less rice  importation.”

The President’s claim was elaborated at the yearend media briefing of Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Cayetano Paderanga Jr. whose report was less exuberant than that of the  President. Paderanga said the National Statistics Office’s Labor Force  Survey  showed that employment generated more than doubled in October 2011 to 2.1 million from the one million jobs created in  2010. Although labor  entrants also increased to 1.9 million, an equally stronger employment generation resulted in a lower unemployment rate of 6.4 percent, compared with the 7.1 unemployment rate in the same month the year before.  For the full year 2011, employment creation was consistent with the planned target of increasing the number of jobs by at least one million each year.

However, Paderanga conceded that the economy grew by 3.6 percent in the first three quarters of 2011, lower than the 8.2 percent growth in the same period in 2010.  He attributed the decline to exogenous factors, blaming the global economic slowdown amid uncertainties in Europe, continuing weakness of the US economy, and the disasters  in Japan, which led to weak exports.

On the local front, there were enough culprits to blame for the drop of the GDP growth rate.  Paderanga said growth was weakened by the contraction  in the construction sector, which was  pulled down by lower government spending, given the process  improvements and project reviews for public construction projects. Nothing was attributed at all to possible ineptitude in government economic management or economic priorities. The government did not explain why it failed to sustain the record 7 percent  GDP growth rate  posted by the Arroyo administration two years ago. The Neda  head also failed to  explain how the doctrine of “daang matuwid” would generate an economic miracle.