Senate bests Supreme Court

The latest SWS release is on the people’s satisfaction, as of Dec. 3-7, 2011, with the performances of the Vice President, Senate President, Speaker, and Chief Justice as officials, and the Senate, House of Representatives, Supreme Court and Cabinet as institutions.

Let us consider, not just the last two quarterly ratings, but all of them during President Aquino’s term thus far, and compare them with counterparts in past periods.

Vice President Jejomar Binay has an “excellent” +70 in net satisfaction. Note that Vice Presidents Erap Estrada and Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo had also gotten excellent marks in their time. Later they both became president, and were great disappointments, i.e. the people can change their minds.

Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile has a “good” net +36, which is middling for that post. His ratings moved into the good range in June 2010, when GMA’s term was ending.  From late 2008, his grade was at neutral for two quarters, and rose to “moderate” (+10 to +29) in the next four quarters.

Speaker Feliciano Belmonte has not had any honeymoon.  His scores of two moderates and four neutrals are generally below those of former Speakers Ramon Mitra, Jose de Venecia during Ramos’ time, and Manny Villar, and only about the same as JDV during Arroyo’s time.

Chief Justice Renato Corona, presently with a “poor” net grade of -14, has not yet had any positive net rating in the seven quarters since he took office.  His grade has ranged between a poor net -18 of June 2010, right after he became the chief, and a neutral zero in both June 2011 and September 2011.

Comparing four institutions. Given the current tensions across the legally co-equal executive, legislative, and judicial branches, let us compare their performances as appraised by the general public.

As of December 2011, the Senate clearly has the best grade (a good net +44) among the four.  Bunched together with moderate grades are the Lower House (+27), the Cabinet (+22) and the Supreme Court (+21).  The low SC ranking is due to its relatively high dissatisfaction rate.

From Cory Aquino’s time up to part one of Arroyo’s time, the high court had been the most esteemed of the four institutions.  The replacement of the Supreme Court by the Senate began in part two of Arroyo’s time.

The latter part of Cory’s time. SWS started its national polls on the Senate and Lower House in September 1988, and on the Supreme Court and the Cabinet in November 1990.  With only two polls per year, this produced eight ratings for the former and five ratings for the latter, up to April 1992.

On the basis of simple averages, the most popular was the Supreme Court, at a moderate net +14.8.  Next came the House at +9.2, and the Senate at +8.5, both neutral. The Cabinet’s average was a poor -10.6, but bear in mind the lack of data on this item from the honeymoon of the Cory period.

Ramos’ time. During FVR’s presidency, the SWS national ratings numbered 25 for the Senate, 24 for the House, 23 for the Supreme Court, and 14 for the Cabinet (the surveys, though quarterly, did not always include all four institutions).

On average, the most popular was the Supreme Court at +21.4, and then the Senate at +20.0, and the House at +16.2, all at moderate levels.  Fourth was the Cabinet, at a neutral but positive +9.2.  Note that all four institutions grew in popularity from Cory’s latter time to FVR’s time.

Erap’s time. During the short-lived Estrada presidency, the four institutions were each rated 10 times.  Their average net ratings were: Supreme Court +26.5, Senate +23.7, House +18.8, and Cabinet +11.8, or all moderate.  Note that all four grew in popularity from the Ramos period. Their ranking was maintained.

Arroyo I. I distinguish between Arroyo I and Arroyo II because the ratings of the institutions differ significantly before and after mid-2004.  In the remaining term of Erap, filled by Gloria Arroyo, the averages were: Supreme Court +20.8, Senate +17.4, House +12.1, and Cabinet +4.6.

These ratings were all lower than during  Erap’s time, with that of the Cabinet turning neutral.  But the ranking was maintained. All the institutions were rated 14 times, except the Cabinet, which was rated 13 times.

Arroyo II. From mid-2004, the Senate took over as the most popular institution, with an average net rating of +20.0, or mid-moderate.  The Supreme Court was significantly behind, with an average of +10.4, or borderline moderate.

Then came the House at +7.8, or neutral-positive.  The Cabinet was absolutely unpopular, averaging only -4.4, or neutral-negative. These are based on surveys numbering 23 for the Senate and House, 22 for the Supreme Court, and 19 for the Cabinet.

For Arroyo’s full period of 2001 to mid-2010, the average net ratings are: Senate +19.0, Supreme Court +14.4, House +9.4, and Cabinet -0.8.

P-Noy’s time. In the past six quarters, the Senate’s average net rating is +49.0, at the top of the “good” range.  The averages of the Lower House, at +31.0, and the Supreme Court, at +30.0, are at the borderline of “good”.  Then comes the Cabinet average of +23.0, or mid-moderate. Note that these are all higher than under the past four administrations.

Since mid-2010, the average grade of the Supreme Court as an institution has been good, even though the average grade of the chief justice has been merely neutral.  To me, this is evidence that the people do not equate the institution with its head.

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Computations are by Josefina Mar of the SWS data-processing staff. Contact SWS: www.sws.org.ph or [email protected].