Ending on a high note

As 2011 ended, SWS issued two reports, one on Dec. 26 about the perceived fairness of the administration’s treatment of Gloria Macapagal- Arroyo on the legal cases facing her, and another on Dec. 28 about the public sense of hope, rather than of fear, in greeting the coming new year.

These were based on the Social Weather Survey fielded on Dec. 3-7, 2011, on 1,200 adult Filipinos nationwide. Note: the former president has been detained without bail since Nov. 18, 2011.

The people say that Arroyo has been treated justly. The survey found a large 69 percent calling the administration’s treatment of Arroyo fair (makatarungan lamang), 17 percent calling it too harsh (masyadong mahigpit), and 13 percent calling it too lenient (masyadong mapagbigay).

This strong core agreement—and the close balance between the opposed sides—is very supportive of the administration’s handling of the situation.

Education raises the perceptions of fairness. The most noticeable demographic is that people with more schooling have stronger perceptions of Arroyo’s being treated fairly by the administration.

The perception was 63 percent among non-elementary graduates, 68 percent among those finishing elementary up to some high school, 70 percent among high school graduates up to some extra schooling, and 82 percent among college graduates. This adds support to the

P-Noy administration, on the premise that more educated people have higher-quality judgments than less educated people do.

As usual, Visayans are a bit kinder to Arroyo. Those who perceive fairness in Arroyo’s treatment are nearly four out of five in Mindanao (79 percent) and Metro Manila (78 percent).  They are two out of three in the Balance of Luzon (66 percent).

But they are only a small majority in Visayas (59 percent), which has the highest proportion saying the treatment is too harsh (24 percent).  The relative partiality of Visayans towards Arroyo is familiar from the satisfaction ratings they gave her while in office.

Arroyo is more distrusted than ever. The December SWS survey also found that only 11 percent have very or somewhat much trust in Arroyo, whereas 73 percent have somewhat or very little trust in her.

SWS classifies the resulting net trust rating of -62 as “very bad,” i.e., between -50 and -69. It is her lowest trust rating so far, worsting her previous low of a very bad net -52 in November 2010, from 16 percent trust and 68 percent distrust.

Arroyo’s bid for public sympathy by sporting a fancy neck brace, in her attempt to leave the country, obviously flopped.  A rare case of someone more distrusted than Arroyo was Osama bin Laden, who got a net trust rating of -71 in the November 2001 nationwide SWS survey.

Arroyo’s net trust rating is -67 among those seeing her as fairly treated, and is also -67 among those seeing her as treated too leniently, by the administration. On the other hand, it is simply a “bad” -37 among those seeing her as treated too harshly.

Public satisfaction with P-Noy is related to treating Arroyo fairly. In the December 2011 survey, satisfaction with President Aquino was 71 percent, and dissatisfaction was 13 percent, for a very good net performance rating of +58. This was the average over all Filipinos.

The large core seeing the administration as treating Arroyo with justice were 73 percent satisfied and 12 percent dissatisfied with P-Noy, giving him an above-average net performance rating of +61.  Thus being fair, neither too harsh nor too lenient, is best for being popular.

Those seeing the administration as treating her too harshly were 69 percent and 17 percent dissatisfied with P-Noy, for a below-average net rating of +52, which is still classified as “very good.”

But those seeing the treatment of Arroyo as too lenient were 60 percent satisfied and 14 dissatisfied with P-Noy, for a net rating of +46, which is farther below-average and simply classified as “good.”  It is interesting to see that being too lenient costs P-Noy more points in popularity than being too harsh.

95 percent greet the New Year with hope. In the last quarter of each year, since 2000, SWS has polled on greeting (sasalubungin) the coming new year either with hope (pag-asa) or with fear (pangamba). The percentage started at 87, and went as low as 81 in late 2004.  The new figure of 95 percent, matching the previous record-high 95 of late 2002, is equally high in all areas and socioeconomic classes.

Of course, it should be remembered that the survey was done on Dec. 3-7, or before the deadly storm “Sendong” struck Northern Mindanao on Dec. 16. The evolution of public concern about climate change will be on forthcoming survey agendas.

Hope for good governance in 2012. Are there good reasons for Filipinos to greet the New Year with hope?

Consider: a former president under detention since Nov. 18 for electoral sabotage; a chief justice impeached on Dec. 12 for betrayal of public trust etc.; a former commission on elections chairman under detention since Dec. 13 for electoral sabotage; and a former general hiding since Dec. 20 to avoid arrest for the disappearance of two student activists.

These make for significant differences from new years in the past.  They may not be directly related to most people’s personal futures.  Yet, as part of the drive for good governance, they promise improvements in the people’s quality of life.

Happy New Year to All!

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Contact SWS: www.sws.org.ph or mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph.