Uncertain future

A few days after the death of Kim Jong-il last Saturday, the state-controlled North Korean media reported that millions of grieving citizens had turned out to mourn his passing. Agence France Presse reported North Korean TV showing images of mourners weeping before portraits of their dead leader, “their bodies shaking with seemingly unbearable grief.”

If indeed most North Koreans are in mourning, it seems that they mourn alone. Outside of North Korea itself, even such public demonstrations of grief are being seen as little more than the usual propaganda being mounted by the government-controlled media which has helped promote a personality cult around the “Dear Leader.” Elsewhere in the world the news of Kim’s death was met with cautious relief more than genuine grief, with world leaders dispensing with their ritual expressions of condolence to his people.

These contrasting reactions to Kim’s death are as stark as the contrast between the myth and the reality of his regime. In announcing his death, a teary-eyed broadcaster perpetuated the myth of a tireless leader who brought his country to modernity, saying: “He worked day and night for socialist construction and the happiness of people, for the union of country and modernization.” The reality is that Kim was a cognac-imbibing, womanizing and ruthless despot who starved his own people while turning his country into a nuclear power and used the nuclear threat to terrorize South Korea and the international community. How poorly he served his people is probably best demonstrated by the fact that North Korea’s 24.2 million people have to struggle to survive on a per capita gross domestic product of $1,097, even as South Korea’s 48.9 million people enjoy a GDP of $20,746. Happiness and modernization, which South Koreans now enjoy, are things that North Koreans can only dream about.

Kim has left his country not only poor but also facing an uncertain future. His chosen successor, Kim Jong-Un, is young not only in years at 28 but also in the art of politics and governance. His strongest credential is being the son of his father. And in North Korea’s dynastic politics, that apparently is all that matters.

Kim Jong-il tried to prepare his son for succession by appointing him as a four-star general two years ago although he had never served in the military. The late leader had also placed a sister and her husband in positions that would ease the transition. But whether the “Great Successor” has succeeded in consolidating his power base remains uncertain. An expert on North Korea, however, has ruled out a military coup, saying military  commanders are unlikely to mount one because the whole state was founded on the continuity of the Kim dynasty.

But even a stable North Korean leadership can’t be very reassuring to an international community that has been hoping that regime change would give that country a chance not only to rebuild its economy but also to help provide some stability in the Korean Peninsula and East Asia. Kim Jong-Un is an unknown quantity. He could act like his father’s son and continue to squander his country’s resources in building a formidable nuclear arsenal, or he can can strike out on a different path by abandoning his father’s nuclear program, ending his country’s isolation and starting its march out of poverty.

The world will be watching with bated breath in what direction he will lead his country.