BARMM, Ballot, and Beyond: Securing the Philippine Seas

The first parliamentary elections mark an important turning point in the Bangsamoro peace process. For decades, the goal was straightforward: stop the fighting, end the armed conflict, and secure meaningful self-rule. That work is not entirely finished. But the nature of the challenge is changing.

The question today is no longer simply how to build peace. It is how to make autonomy work. Put simply: Can BARMM build a functioning democracy, turn its geography into an economic advantage, and engage the wider world without compromising Philippine national interests and security?

A Doorstep to Southeast Asia

On traditional maps, the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) often looks like a distant corner of the country. Geopolitics tells a very different story.

BARMM sits at the country’s southern gateway to maritime Southeast Asia. Just across the Sulu Sea lie Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brunei. This places the region at the intersection of Philippine, ASEAN, and wider Indo-Pacific economic and maritime networks, opening opportunities for trade, transport, tourism, fisheries, investment, and cross-border business.

Programs such as BIMP-EAGA—the Brunei Darussalam–Indonesia–Malaysia–Philippines East ASEAN Growth Area—and the Sulu–Sulawesi corridor build on connections that have existed across these seas for generations. They create opportunities for greater economic integration with neighboring parts of Southeast Asia.

For BARMM, this is more than a business opportunity. It is a strategic asset.

For much of its history, this southern geography was viewed from Manila primarily through the lens of conflict, instability, and security threats. The same geography can now be viewed differently—as a potential gateway to regional markets and a contributor to the country’s economic and strategic resilience.

Looking South for Maritime Security

When we talk about Philippine maritime security, our attention naturally turns westward to the contested waters of the West Philippine Sea.

But we should also be looking south. The Sulu and Celebes Seas form part of a wider maritime network connecting the Philippines with Malaysia, Indonesia, and the broader region. Routes through the Sibutu Passage, in particular, connect the Sulu and Celebes seas and form part of the maritime connectivity of the southern Philippines.

In peaceful times, these routes are simply avenues for trade and movement. In times of crisis, they can give the Philippines options.

If tensions in the West Philippine Sea or South China Sea were ever to seriously disrupt shipping or other critical maritime routes, alternative connections through the southern seas could become increasingly important for the movement of energy, food, goods, and essential supplies.

The Sulu Sea, therefore, should not be seen merely as a “backup route.” Its significance is much greater. For an archipelagic country that depends heavily on maritime connectivity, having multiple viable routes is itself a form of national resilience.

This is where Bangsamoro aspirations and broader Philippine national interests reinforce each other. A peaceful, stable, and economically vibrant BARMM strengthens the country’s southern flank.

Open to the World, But Clear-Eyed

Of course, geography alone does not create prosperity or security.

Turning location into opportunity will require modern ports, reliable transport, secure sea lanes, effective customs and border management, resilient communications, and institutions capable of regulating economic activity fairly and effectively. Development and security have to move together.

As BARMM becomes more economically and strategically important, interest from outside the region will inevitably grow. Neighboring ASEAN countries, traditional partners, development institutions, and global investors will all be looking for opportunities. Their involvement can bring much-needed investment, technology, infrastructure, and jobs. These partnerships can accelerate the region’s development and strengthen its connections with Southeast Asia.

But being open to the world also means knowing what must be protected.

BARMM should be able to work with different partners without becoming overly dependent on any one of them. It should be able to welcome foreign investment while ensuring that major economic decisions remain consistent with Philippine sovereignty, national interests, and security.

That means having the political will to ask some uncomfortable questions before major investments and partnerships are approved:

• Who will control critical infrastructure?
• Could this create long-term economic dependence?
• What happens to our data and communications systems?
• What are the implications for maritime and national security?
• And if the geopolitical environment changes, what are our safeguards to maintain our autonomy?

These are not questions against foreign investment. They are questions of good governance and responsible engagement. For BARMM, knowing the difference between a productive partnership and a strategic dependency will become increasingly important.

The Next Chapter of the Peace Process

This is why today’s parliamentary elections matter so much.

The incoming leaders will inherit responsibilities that go well beyond delivering public services and managing regional politics. They will be governing a region that is simultaneously a product of a peace process, an emerging economic corridor, a maritime gateway, and a strategically important part of Southeast Asia.The peace process created the political space for Bangsamoro self-government. The next challenge is to make that self-government work to create prosperity for its communities, strengthen democratic institutions, and contribute to the country’s wider security and resilience.

In that sense, peace governance must eventually become strategic governance. BARMM can become a gateway to Southeast Asia, an anchor of development in the southern Philippines, and an important pillar of the country’s strategic resilience.

And perhaps that is one of the most important things peace can ultimately deliver: not simply the absence of conflict, but the opportunity to turn a once-troubled geography into an asset for generations to come. Ultimately, BARMM will stand not just as living proof of what peace can build, but as a non-negotiable pillar of Philippine national security.

Dr. Jennifer Santiago Oreta is the Dean of the Ateneo School of Government (ASoG). She is an expert in security governance and peacebuilding, having served as Assistant Secretary for Policy at the Office of the Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process (OPAPP).