With just 41 days before election time, the nation is poised to witness unexpected surprises in the political arena. Social media buzz is peaking and both maybe advantageous or detrimental to candidates.
At this juncture, opposing camps have a clear understanding of their standings leading up to the election, even as the official local campaign period began just last Friday. Each aspirant will heavily rely on his internal surveys and insights from experts to help reshape their strategies.
On the ground, there is heightened talk of Duterte’s arrest influencing national and local election campaigns. These include the social media-hyped backlash targetting administration candidates. However, there is silent majority that counters this, particularly the SWS February 15-19 survey saying 51 percent of Filipinos agree that Duterte should be held liable while 25 percent disagree and 14 percent are undecided. Of course, this survey ws conducted 20 days before Digong’s arrest in NAIA.
Another political buzz is the supposed denial of support by a powerful religious bloc, the INC, against the 215 congressmen who ignored their plea to discontinue and proceeded to sign the impeachment complaint vs. VP Sara.
Also in play are the effect of the massive ayuda distributed in NCR , last year, from AKAP, AICS, TUPAD which benefitted more than 5 million underpaid but employed minimum wage workers. Some view this negatively as political doleouts, but to defenders, this DSWD programs are ’emergency lifelines to poverty stricken families. How these beneficiaries will vote next month is very interesting to see.
With these influences, we take a deep dive into Metro Manila’s congressional battles. There are thirty-three (33) congressional seats in NCR and ninety three aspirants filed their COCs. So far, I’ve identified twenty (20)congressional candidates who are already considered “sure winners,” either running unopposed or facing significantly weaker rivals in their respective districts.
Among the “sure winners” are 3rd-termer Pasay City Congressman Antonino Calixto-Lakas, QC 6th District’s 2nd-termer Marivic Co-Pilar-NUP , Caloocan City’s 3rd District 2nd-termer Dean Asistio -Lakas , Mandaluyong’s Queenie Gonzales-Lakas (who is replacing her husband Neptali), Navotas’ lone district 2nd-termer Rep. Toby Tiangco, Valenzuela’s Kenneth Gatchalian-NPC (who is replacing his brother Rex), and Muntinlupa’s 2nd-termer Rep. Jaime Fresnedi-LP.
In Quezon City, sure winners include District 2’s 2nd-termer Ralph Tulfo-PFP, District 1’s Congressman Arjo Atayde-Lakas and District 5’s Congressman Patrick Michael Vargas, on his second term. In Makati, Vice Mayor Monique Lagdameo-NUP is running unopposed
in the city’s first district, while in Las Pinas Senator Cynthia Villar-NP is set to return as congresswoman.
In Marikina’s second district, former congressman Miro Quimbo-Lakas (replacing his wife Stella Quimbo) becomes the sure winner after incumbent Mayor Marcy Teodoro chose to run in the first district. Mayor Teodoro faced a six-month suspension from the Ombudsman over allegations of misusing P130M in government funds. Earlier, the Comelec’s first division canceled his Certificate of Candidacy due to material misrepresentation, citing residency issues. These challenges favor his opponent, retiring Senator Koko Pimente-NP, to run unopposed.
In Manila, elections appear settled in three congressional districts where incumbents face weaker opponents. There’s the 6th District with last-termer Congressman Benny Abante-NUP and 2nd-termer Congressman Joel Chua-Lakas, in District 3 while newcomer Dr. Giselle Maceda, replacing her husband Edward-NPC , is unbeatable in the Sampaloc district against more weaker contenders.
In Parañaque, former Mayor Eric Olivares-Lakas. is unopposed in the first district, while former Deputy Speaker and DILG Asec Brian Yamsuan (Independent) is a sure winner with an insurmountable lead over incumbent Gus Tambunting in the second district.
Close contests and upsets are anticipated in several congressional races. For instance, Malabon is a free-for-all, with comebacking Congressman Ricky Sandoval (husband of incumbent Mayor Jennie), former An Waray Party List Representative Bem Noel (husband of incumbent Congresswoman Josephine Lacson Noel), and former Mayor Lenlen Oreta all standing as contenders.
Similarly, competitive races are expected in three districts in Manila, two districts in Quezon City, two in Taguig, San Juan’s lone district, one in Valenzuela and one in Makati.
In Manila, a musical chairs game is in play, with politicians switching sides from the Isko-Honey parting of ways. Former Congressman Amado Bagatsing faces incumbent Rep. Irwin Tieng—a 2nd-termer Lakas— shaping a noteworthy race. Bagatsing is allied with comebacking Mayor Isko, while Tieng runs under Lakas with Mayor Honey Lacuna. This clash promises to be nearly tied across the board.
In Tondo, both districts demonstrate the same musical chairs of the Moreno-Lacuna divide. In the second district, last-termer Incumbent Rep. Rolando Valeriano (NUP) is rematched against comebacking Rep. Carlo Lopez, now affiliated with Isko’s Asenso party. In 2022, Valeriano gained a significant victory supported by both Lacuna and Moreno — winning by 28K votes. Close analysis suggests that this upcoming match will also be close.
The first district features an interesting battle between incumbent Rep. Ernix Dionisio, who has defected from Lacuna’s camp to ally with Isko, and comebacking Rep. Manny Lopez, who is now with Lacuna under Lakas. Additionally, newcomer Tondo-born billionaire businessman Joseph Lumbad, representing the Frontliner Party, joins the fray. In 2022, Dionisio shared affiliation with Lacuna-Moreno and won by only 11k votes over Lopez. A three way contest with Lumbad’s entry makes this district an anybody’game.
Close contests are also heating up in two districts in Quezon City. . District Four is a rematch between incumbent Rep. Franz Pumaren-NUP and comebacking Congressman Allan Benedict Reyes-PFP. Pumaren achieved a surprising win in 2022 by just 3,816 votes, leading Reyes’ camp to claim it was merely an anomaly. Today, the race is highly competitive.
QC District-3 is also a one-on-one showdown between Rep. Marvin Rillo-Lakas and former Rep. Bong Suntay. Suntay faced minimal opposition until Rillo’s challenge in 2022, leading to a stunning upset with Rillo winning by 1,948 votes against a presumptive victor. This rematch carries an air of unpredictability with only weeks remaining.
Makati’s second district is an interesting clash of councilor Dennis Almario supported by Luis Campos and Kid Pena versus former councilor Vincent Sese of Sen Nancy Binay.
Mudslinging is the name of the gane here and everything is even steven.
In Valenzuela’s second district , Katherine Martinez-NUP (wife of retiring Rep Eric Martinez- now an independent senatorial candidate) is facing a one-on one fight against an independent but 2022 elections topnotcher Councilor Gerald Cloyd Glang. Surveys indicate a close fight and again too close to call.
San Juan City is also set for a rematch between the commanding Zamora and Ejercito clans in its lone congressional district. In 2022, Rep. Bel Zamora-Lakas (sister of Mayor Francis) triumphed over Councilor Jana Ejercito-PMP, her family’s gladiator in that election, by 22,201 votes. This May, her famous cousins Senators JV Ejercito and Jinggoy Estrada are rallying behind Jana and hitting the Zamoras in power. Expect heightened stakes here.
In Taguig’s first district, a three cornered fight among former Mayor Lino Cayetano-NPC against his sister in law’s preferred candidate , incumbent Rep. Ricardo Cruz-NP together with former Rep. Allan Cerafica-PFP who lost by 16,986 votes to Cruz in 2022. While Lino Cayetano has residency issues with Comelec, this melee is too close call.
In the second district, where nearly 200,000 Makati voters transferred registrations due to a Supreme Court ruling, incumbent Rep. Pammy Zamora-Lakas (daughter of former Exec Sec. Ronnie Zamora) cut ties with Mayor Lani Cayetano who in turn fielded a strong opponent in Liga ng Barangay President Jorge Bocobo. Here, the Binay influence will definitely play a major role and we expect notable political fireworks to happen.
In summary, the May 12 elections landscape is rife with possibilities and challenges. The results will profoundly communicate the electorate’s desires to their elected officials—from either administration and opposition. Ultimately, all eyes will be fixed on the evolving narrative, underlining that in politics, nothing is ever set in stone. This upcoming elections could mark a transformative period for governance in Metro Manila and beyond, setting the stage for the next chapter in our country’s tumultuous political journey.