Duterte’s ICC predicament and the 2028 elections
The seemingly precipitate trip of former president Rodrigo Duterte and his family, including Vice President Sara Duterte, to Hong Kong the other day has perked the political scene in the Philippines. Has the International Criminal Court finally issued a warrant of arrest for Duterte for crimes against humanity (2016-2019) before Duterte pulled out the Philippines from the ICC?
The ICC pretrial chamber issues a sealed warrant to prevent suspects from fleeing.
The warrant is made public only when necessary (e.g., to pressure states to act). If a warrant of arrest has indeed been issued, what are the challenges in enforcing the arrest of Rodrigo Duterte? What is the record of the ICC in successfully arresting and trying fugitives from international justice?
Rodrigo Duterte is charged with crimes against humanity. The ICC’s investigation into Duterte’s war on drugs has followed these key steps: (1) February 2018: ICC prosecutor Fatou Bensouda announced a preliminary examination into crimes against humanity related to the Philippine drug war. (2) March 2019: Duterte withdrew the Philippines from the ICC to avoid prosecution. (3) September 2021: The ICC pretrial chamber approved a full investigation into drug war killings from 2016 to 2019 despite the Philippines’ withdrawal. (4) January 2023: The ICC rejected the Philippine government’s appeal to stop the investigation. (5) July 2023: ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan formally resumed investigations into Duterte’s alleged crimes. (6) Early 2024: Reports indicate that the ICC may be preparing to issue an arrest warrant for Duterte.
As in the case of Duterte, the ICC’s prosecutor can open an investigation if there is sufficient evidence and approval from ICC judges. The trial process consists of (1) Preliminary Examination (determines if there is enough evidence to open a formal investigation); (2) Investigation (gathering evidence, interviewing witnesses, and issuing arrest warrants); (3) Trial (defendants appear before ICC judges, where prosecutors and defense teams present their cases); (4) Judgment and Sentencing (if found guilty, the defendant can be sentenced to prison, max 30 years or life in extreme cases); and (5) Appeals Process (defendants can appeal convictions or sentences).
Rodrigo Duterte’s situation—potentially facing an ICC arrest warrant—is not unique. Many leaders and high-ranking officials have been indicted by the ICC or other international tribunals but have either evaded arrest by staying in non-cooperating countries, been arrested and extradited for trial, or faced justice through domestic legal processes.
Given the ICC’s history with high-profile fugitives, these are Duterte’s most likely paths:
Scenario 1: Duterte remains a fugitive like Omar al-Bashir (Sudan). Stays in Hong Kong, China, or Russia, avoiding ICC member countries. Remains politically influential and protected by allies.
Scenario 2: Duterte is arrested abroad like Charles Taylor (Liberia). If he travels to an ICC member country, he risks arrest and extradition. An ICC cooperating European or Asian country could enforce the warrant.
Scenario 3: Domestic prosecution like Augusto Pinochet (Chile). A future Philippine government (post-2028) could put him on trial at home rather than send him to The Hague. This might happen if public pressure and new leadership favor accountability.
Scenario 4: Case collapses like Jomo Kenyatta’s (Kenya). If key evidence is lost, witnesses are intimidated or allies block ICC cooperation, the case could fall apart over time.
The safe countries for Duterte to evade arrest include China and Hong Kong. China does not recognize ICC jurisdiction and has protected fugitives before. Duterte risks immediate arrest and extradition if he enters the 125 ICC member states, including Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand (Asia-Pacific); United Kingdom, France, Germany, Spain, Netherlands (Europe); Canada, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico (Americas), and South Africa, Kenya, Ghana (Africa).
It is unlikely that Duterte will be arrested “forthwith.” The noose is loose—so many escape and dilatory routes are available to him. Over the long term, whether Rodrigo Duterte would undergo the ICC process hinges on whether Sara Duterte will become president in 2028. Eligibility to run for president, eventually, is on Sara’s hand. Anticipating an adverse verdict, she could simply resign and preempt a disqualification to run for the presidency in 2028. What is missing in this equation is the fierce outcry of the victims of the war on drugs and expressions of the deep sense of injustice and outrage of the Filipino people.
————–
doyromero@gmail.com
