Trump presidency: From farce to tragedy?

Who the f*ck is this guy?” complained a defense industry lobbyist after president-elect Donald Trump announced his pick to lead the Pentagon next year. In fairness, Pete Hegseth is not only a television star at Fox News, but also a war veteran, who was previously tapped to lead the Department of Veterans Affairs during Trump’s first term. His surprising appointment was far from the most curious one.

“Worst cabinet-level appointment in history,” cried former national security adviser John Bolton after learning that former Democratic legislator Tulsi Gabbard will become the new director of National Intelligence. But even more outrageous to other fellow Republicans was Trump’s appointment of Matt Gaetz as attorney general. A subject of an ongoing House ethics committee investigation, Gaetz has confronted, among others, allegations of sexual misconduct and is known for his pugnacious public posturing.

A White House counsel during Trump’s first term in office told Politico: “There’s no conceivable justification for nominating somebody this smarmy and this offensive for a position of such significance.” But other controversial Trump appointees, most notably Elon Musk, who will serve as the co-chair of the president-elect’s new Department of Government Efficiency, wholeheartedly backed the appointment on his X platform: “The hammer of justice is coming.” Oh, and alleged antivaxxer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will lead the Department of Health and Human Services!

In response to Trump’s unorthodox appointments, Republican Sen. Thom Tillis quipped: “I’m sure it’ll make for a popcorn-eating confirmation [hearing in coming weeks].” By now, dear readers, I think we should have been disabused of any notion that a second Trump administration would be a ”tempered” version of the first one. This one could turn out as even more polarizing and personalistic than the original iteration.

The great German philosopher’s G.W.F.’s Hegel’s once argued that all great personages of history appear first as tragedy, then as farce. In Trump’s case, we may see a reverse order: the first term more farcical, while the second could turn out as far more dramatic and consequential.

In fairness, Trump’s appointment formula is perfectly understandable. After meeting institutional resistance from so-called “adults in the room” and the “steady state” during his first term, he is now intent on ensuring full personal loyalty and dedication to his vision for America in his legacy term in office. No more comical amateur hour performances. This version of the Trump administration may end up as far more ideologically coherent and disciplined.

As with other United States allies, the Philippines must make the most out of traditional ties, personal connections between the Marcoses and Trump, and the more “conventional” appointments, particularly the ascension of Sen. Marco Rubio to the most prestigious Cabinet position under a Trump 2.0 presidency.

After all, this is the same Rubio who steadfastly stood by the Philippines’ democratic opposition, most notably former senators Leila de Lima and Antonio Trillanes IV, throughout the darkest phase of the Duterte presidency. As Trillanes recently told me, “He was one of the senators who opened the doors for the Philippines … and has been a [champion of] our causes from human rights to West Philippines Sea.”

Crucially, the next US top diplomat is also a sincere believer in the value of Philippine-US alliance and is a bona fide China hawk, who is in no mood to let the Asian superpower dominate the West Philippine Sea and the so-called First Island Chain stretching across much of archipelagic East Asia.

“[W]e don’t want to lose access to the Philippines, which plays a crucial role in the international economy. These islands host the world’s largest digital signal processing chips factory,” Rubio wrote in an op-ed last year, underscoring the Philippines’ centrality to America’s grand strategy in Asia. “They are also among the world’s greatest producers of cobalt and nickel, critical minerals for 21st-century supply chains. Our ability to maintain great power status would be severely diminished were they to fall under communist control.”

A second Trump presidency will likely be tough in terms of tariffs on economic rivals and intolerant toward illegal immigration. Thus, the Philippines must proactively leverage its newfound geopolitical centrality by pushing for favorable people-to-people relations with large-scale strategic investments in nickel and semiconductors as well as expanded defense aid from America—while ensuring it preserves optimal strategic autonomy and stable diplomatic ties with China. It will be an uphill battle.

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