Baseload power is vital for reliability and security

Energy security is articulated in terms of whether the quantity of supply can meet demand while also providing for a margin of allowance (e.g. yellow and red alerts).

But looking at specific power plants, it is important to consider capacity factors (or the ratio between the total metered quantity and the total registered capacity, i.e. megawatt vs. megawatt peak) to understand what is distinct about each one and how it affects aggregate power generation.

According to the Philippine Electricity Market Corporation’s 2023 Annual Market Assessment,
the capacity factors of the following energy sources are geothermal 65.5-71%, coal 57.5-68.5%; natural gas 44.2-64.2%; hydro 24.1-39.2%; wind 31%; biomass 25%; and solar 20%.

Using solar as an example, this means that out of 100 megawatts of installed solar capacity,
only 20 megawatts are effectively produced. For solar and wind, its low-capacity factor is because of its daily, hourly or even minute per minute intermittencies; when there is no sunshine or wind, there is no power generation.

Due to the low-capacity factor of variable renewable energy like solar and wind, even if such sources are expanded, the Philippines will still need dispatchable sources like geothermal (which is unfortunately more capital intensive), as well as traditional sources like coal and natural gas, to generate consistent power, ensure grid stability, and reliability meet daily demand.

Moreover, even if adding energy storage systems can support intermittent sources, it is still costly to the point of rendering solar storage or wind storage commercially uncompetitive against nonrenewable.

Diverse power mix

In the case of the Visayas, there are already a lot of renewable energy capacities in the islands.
As of May 2024, there are 76 recorded power plants there, with renewable energy making up 49% of total dependable capacity.

There is more to come, as aligned with the government’s goal of increasing the share of renewable energy in the nation’s power generation mix to 35% by 2030, 50% by 2040, and more than 50% by 2050.

As of July 2024, there are 45 committed power projects in the Visayas, of which 88% of rated
capacity is renewable energy + storage and 12% is fossil fuel.

While increasing renewable energy is certainly a good thing — one that should make everyone
very happy — we know that not all electricity is created equal, as evidenced by capacity factors.
We also know that variable renewable energy plus batteries is still expensive and uncompetitive.

Please realize that as electricity demand grows along with economic expansion, all types of
plant operations — from baseload (high-capacity factor) to peaking (low-capacity factor) — must grow as well, especially as baseload and intermediate power plants will be needed to counter intermittencies from the rise of more variable renewable energy.

Visayas and the rest of the country should not forget to manage and equitably grow its portfolio with a diverse mix of sources and technologies to strengthen the foundation of its electric power system. In turn, this supports the integration of more variable renewable energy.

At its most core, the purpose of an electrical grid is to deliver continuous and reliable electricity at the least possible cost. The situation dictates that the Visayas needs to rely on a diverse mix of sources and technologies, as opposed to singularly renewable energy or singularly fossil fuel.

There is a delicate balance between energy security, affordability, and sustainability, and each source or technology offers its own pros and cons. Let us not allow simplistic narratives to kill this critical enabling segment of the energy system.

Far from the dishonest tactics we see in the headlines, we must demand constructive dialogue from those who claim to defend the interests of consumers. We must explore real and viable solutions that are well within the context and capability of our country; not diverting and fooling ourselves into thinking that what applies elsewhere also applies here.

Doing what we can with what we have, we must applaud how there are a lot of renewable energy capacities and energy storage systems in the pipeline.

Close to 9 out of 10 new megawatts of power generation capacity in the Visayas is expected to be from renewable sources and energy storage. But we should also be cognizant that we still need fossil fuels to maintain the workings of our grid in providing the electricity our society needs 24/7.