VP Sara’s trust problem: can she recover?

Sara Duterte’s once-strong political standing is facing an avalanche of challenges. A major survey commissioned by think tank Stratbase, Inc. shows a significant drop in her net trust rating, revealing that Filipinos are increasingly losing faith in her. But is this just a temporary dip, or are we seeing the beginning of a broader political crisis for the embattled vice president?

The numbers paint a troubling picture. From June to September 2024, Duterte’s net trust rating plummeted by 16 points, nearly double the drop experienced by President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. This isn’t just a statistical anomaly—it’s a reflection of deeper political issues. And the causes aren’t hard to find.

At the heart of Duterte’s falling numbers is the controversy surrounding alleged misuse of confidential funds. In 2022, her office spent P125 million in just 11 days, raising red flags among government watchdogs and prompting serious questions about transparency and accountability. The Commission on Audit (COA) disallowed P73-million or roughly 60% of these expenses, citing irregularities like questionable payments for supplies, safe houses even food and medicine. For a vice president who promised clean governance, this scandal has cast a long shadow over her credibility.

To make matters worse, Duterte has been evasive during congressional inquiries. Critics argue that her refusal to address these allegations only fuels more suspicion. As opposition lawmakers like ACT Teachers party-list Rep. France Castro pointed out, this lack of transparency is troubling for someone holding the second highest office in the land. Duterte’s claim that these criticisms are politically motivated hasn’t convinced many. If anything, her avoidance of the issue may be fueling even more distrust.

Cabinet resignation: A tactical error?

Adding to the controversy was Duterte’s abrupt resignation as Secretary of Education, amid accusations of corruption linked again to alleged fund misuse. Her decision to step down raised eyebrows and added to the perception that she might be avoiding accountability for the botched delivery of computers and textbooks, stale milk and moldy bread or nutribuns for poor students. This, in turn, has eroded public confidence, particularly among urban voters and the middle class, two demographics critical to any future political ambitions she may have.

VP Sara’s resignation also highlights the growing rift between her and President Marcos, Jr. This division within the ruling coalition is no secret, with Duterte’s supporters even going so far as to accuse Marcos of orchestrating the attacks against her. The squabble has weakened Duterte’s standing, as internal conflicts tend to tarnish both sides involved.

Aside from her personal controversies, Duterte’s administration has faced significant external challenges. The Philippines has been rocked by natural disasters, with devastating typhoons and floods sweeping through Luzon and Mindanao. The massive floods in VP Sara’s home city of Davao despite billions of pesos in flood control funds channeled through her brother is further eroding confidence. While it’s true that President Marcos also saw a decline in trust ratings during this period, Duterte’s numbers took a much steeper dive. 

Likewise, escalating tensions in the West Philippine Sea have further strained her credibility. As China became more aggressive in asserting its territorial claims, Filipinos grew increasingly frustrated with government’s perceived lack of assertiveness. While foreign policy is primarily within the president’s domain, VP Duterte’s deafening silence in the face of China’s continuing aggression has made her a target for severe criticism.

The road ahead: Can VP Duterte bounce back?

Recovering from this steep decline in trust will not be easy for Duterte. Her core base in Mindanao remains relatively stable, but her numbers in Luzon, Metro Manila, and Visayas are cause for concern. These are critical regions if she hopes to maintain national relevance. The decline in trust among the middle and upper classes also suggests a shift in support that could impact her potential future candidacies. 

To regain public trust, Duterte needs to address the allegations head-on. Continued evasion will only deepen perceptions that she has something to hide. Transparency and accountability, not deflection, are the only ways to win back people’s confidence.

If the vice president continues to ignore these issues, the likelihood of more severe political repercussions, like impeachment, looms larger. With opposition voices growing louder, Duterte’s political future hangs in the balance. The next few months will be crucial in determining whether she can reverse the downward trend or whether this is the beginning of the end for her once-promising political career.

Interesting family face-offs in Metro Manila politics

In the next few months, all eyes will focus on several cities where family relatives are facing off because of politics. I’m referring of course to the cities of Makati, Paranaque, Las Pinas and Taguig.

Makati

Outgoing Senator Nancy Binay will face his brother-in-law and Mayor Abby’s husband, Rep. Luis Campos Jr for the next mayor of Makati. Nancy’s vice mayor is actor and former congressman Monsour del Rosario while Campos Jr will team up with Rep. Kid Peña, who defeated former VP Jejomar Binay in the last elections. Interestingly, Nancy has officially endorsed Abby’s senatorial journey.

Parañaque

In Paranaque, an interesting twist happened when the wife of incumbent mayor Eric Olivares decided to run against his brother-in law Rep. Edwin Olivares.  An agreement was made earlier between the brothers that former Metro Manila chair Edwin will return as Mayor and  Eric will return to Congress. However, the wife of Eric, Aileen Claire Olivares filed her certificate of candidacy as mayor yesterday. Reason: she was unhappy that her husband was not allowed to run for reelection as mayor. So there, will she be for real, or will drop out last minute?

Las Piñas

In the once politically quiet city of Las Piñas, a battle of first cousins is raging, top to bottom.  Incumbent Vice Mayor April Aguilar Nery will be running against her first cousin, incumbent councilor Carlo Aguilar.   April is the daughter of incumbent Mayor Imelda Aguilar and former mayor Vergel Aguilar while Carlo is the son of Christian Aguilar, a brother of Vergel and Cynthia Villar.

The protagonists would be the Tatak-Nene team with April running as mayor, her mother Imelda Aguilar as vice mayor and seven-term councilor Mark Anthony Santos as congressional candidate. They are running un the Nationalist Peoples Coalition (NPC). The other side, Tropang Villar under the Nacionalista party will field Carlo as mayor, Hall of famer Councilor Luis Bustamante returning as Vice Mayor and comebacking ex-congresswoman and graduating senator Cynthia Villar.  Another seven term councilor Joaquin Jun Almeda joined the fray as independent choosing to run versus  Cynthia Villar in the city’s lone congressional lone district.

Rumors are swirling in Las Piñas   that at the center of the family disagreement was an alleged P70-M unpaid real property taxes plus penalties of the Villars to the LGU.

Taguig

Incumbent Mayor Lani Cayetano brought her political team to simultaneously file their certificates of candidacy before the Comelec office in Taguig Convention center. She brought incumbent First District Taguig- Pateros Congressman Ricardo (Ading ) Cruz who is gunning for reelection. He will be facing Lani’s brother-in-law former Taguig mayor Direk Lino Cayetano who has earlier filed his COC at Comelec-NCR office in San Juan. Earlier, Lino declared his intention to return to his former position as Mayor, possibly running against Lani, but he withdrew and now targeting the first district. In Lani’s photo op session yesterday, she clearly favored Rep. Ading Cruz’s candidacy instead of her brother-in-law- Direk Lino.

So there, with four months to go before the start of the campaign period in February next year for local candidates, expect political explosions happening in Makati, Parañaque, Las Piñas and possibly Taguig.