‘Climatopias’: Human settlements of the future?

As sea level rises and flooding becomes more common, the future of human settlements and cities could lie in the water. This bold new concept is part of the compelling notion of climate utopias or “climatopias.” In a recent commentary published in the science journal Nature, Idowu Ajibade and Sameer Shah (2024) posed the intriguing question of whether flood-resilient settlements are the answer in some of the low-lying areas of the world where almost one billion people live.

While flood-proof climatopias seem the stuff of fiction, the concept is already being tried in several countries, from ultra-luxurious artificial islands in Dubai to more modest water-based settlements in the Maldives.

Indeed, the concept is not entirely novel, as the Manobos of the Agusan Marsh can attest. These indigenous people live in the Agusan Marsh Wildlife Sanctuary. An Asean Heritage Park, the marsh is the largest wetlands ecosystem in the country and is home to a wealth of biodiversity. Because they live in the wetlands where flooding is a daily reality, the Manobos have learned to adapt by building floating houses, gardens, markets, and even places of worship. On the other side of the globe, a civilization has flourished for thousands of years in the water city of Venice.

As city planners, engineers, policymakers, and scientists contemplate the potential of building flood-resilient homes and settlements, they must be mindful that while there are potential benefits, there are also significant risks associated with climatopias. In their paper, Ajibade and Shah offered six criteria to guide the planning, construction, and management of climatopias. These criteria are suitable design, practicality, ecosystem safeguards, avoiding maladaptation, prioritizing equity and justice, and tightening regulations. For instance, land reclamation projects could destroy natural drainage and ecosystems, exacerbating existing problems. This concern is especially germane in a country like ours where land reclamation projects abound. In addition, it is vital that such settlements benefit people with various income levels and not just the wealthy. Clearly, several issues still need to be investigated before we see the proliferation of climatopias around the world.

With our planet’s continued warming, rising seas and associated flooding impacts seem a foregone conclusion. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) synthesis report (2023) concludes that sea level rise is “unavoidable for centuries to millennia due to continuing deep ocean warming and ice sheet melt, and sea levels will remain elevated for thousands of years” with sea levels rising to one meter by the end of the 21st century. In addition, the IPCC Working Group II (2022) warns that under the worst-case warming scenario, up to about 10 percent of the global population and up to 20 percent of the global GDP could be exposed to coastal flooding by 2100.

Sadly, there is limited information on the impacts of the country’s rising sea level. Initial simulations by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration show that up to 20 million Filipinos could be exposed to the effects of higher sea levels by 2100. We sorely need the scientific community to contribute through research that assesses how climate change could affect coastal settlements and what options are available to enhance the resilience of people and ecosystems.

We can learn from the Manobos’ and other countries’ experiences. But even the Manobos may face climatic conditions exceeding their current knowledge. For instance, changing precipitation patterns may make flooding more frequent and intense than ever before. As such, they also need to be prepared for the impacts of global warming. Some people have pointed out that we have been too focused on our terrestrial resources, ignoring that a much bigger body of water surrounds us. Our archipelagic character could be an opportunity waiting to be explored. With more than half of our people living in coastal zones, there is still time to consider, at least initially by research organizations, solutions such as climatopias.

Atlantis may be a prosperous island that existed only in Plato’s fertile imagination. But the future may lie in bringing to life not one but many Atlantises around the globe without the hubris that doomed the mythical city. We may also call such cities climatopias.

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Dr. Rodel D. Lasco is one of the authors of the IPCC’s sixth assessment report. He is the executive director of The OML Center, a foundation devoted to discovering climate change adaptation solutions (http://www.omlopezcenter.org/)