Marcos’ most defining year

Barcelona—Following the emphatic victory of the UniTeam tandem in the 2022 elections, the Duterte dynasty expected a new golden era of power and influence in the Philippines. True, former president Rodrigo Duterte botched any attempt to engineer a favorable succession after haplessly vacillating between supporting either his consiglieri or daughter.

In the end, Duterte ended up “neutral” on the presidential race, even as former Manila mayor Francisco “Isko” Domagoso desperately courted his endorsement against all hopes. Nevertheless, the powerful dynasty from Davao had all the reasons to remain confident about its prospects throughout the second decade of the 21st century.

After all, the Dutertes were keenly aware of their pivotal role in enabling the return of the Marcos dynasty to Malacañang. Despite her inexperience in national politics, Sara Duterte had topped multiple pre-election presidential surveys until she dropped out of contention in favor of the second most powerful office of the land.

Her individual charisma was also far from inconsequential. I vividly remember how it was Sara Duterte who elicited the largest and most passionate reaction from the crowd during UniTeam’s miting de avance, even if she did not represent the top of the ticket. No wonder then, many expected her to serve as the true power behind the throne once her father vacated Malacañang.

It goes without saying that the Duterte dynasty did not hold President Marcos in the highest regard. Back in 2022, well before his explosive rants and open incitement to rebellion against his successor, Rodrigo Duterte dismissed the namesake son of the former Philippine dictator as nothing more than a “spoiled brat” and a “weak leader.”

To almost everyone’s astonishment, however, Mr. Marcos was quick to cut down his self-entitled allies to size as soon as he assumed power. To her consternation, Sara Duterte was denied her earlier and very public request to take the national defense portfolio. Former president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, who was seen as one of the main brokers of UniTeam, was also passed over for speakership in favor of Martin Romualdez, the de facto right-hand man of the new president.

In his first State of the Nation Address (Sona), meanwhile, Mr. Marcos made it clear that he was not interested in a “Second Duterte” presidency. He outraged Duterte loyalists by refusing to substantively discuss any of their pet issues—namely drug war, constitutional change, and communist rebels. Instead, Mr. Marcos unveiled a new brand of leadership, which combined elements of classic statesmanship, technocracy, and self-styled historical revisionism.

In short, the UniTeam divorce was inevitable. And the Vice President left nothing to the imagination after boycotting this year’s Sona and, bizarrely, “appointing” herself as “designated survivor.” Refusing to end up as the “boiling frog,” namely awaiting her subtle yet steady total political marginalization, she had earlier resigned from the Marcos Cabinet and, crucially, presented herself as the de facto leader of a new “opposition” by threatening that, inter alia, as many as three Dutertes could run for national office next year. I don’t necessarily foresee a civil war situation akin to what once devastated great cities such as Barcelona. As an OCTA Research survey earlier this year showed, only 20 percent of respondents counted themselves as Duterte loyalists, compared to 31 percent firmly in the Marcos camp. Nevertheless, the Dutertes still present a formidable challenge to the incumbent, including in next year’s elections.

In the most recent Pulse Asia Survey, Sara Duterte secured the highest approval rating (71 percent) among all elected officials, way ahead of the President (52). The explanation is simple. First of all, she has a solid Vis-Min base, securing 80 percent support in Visayas and 95 percent support in Mindanao. Moreover, her marginalization from office has shielded her from widespread disapproval of the government’s management of the economy, which secured a net negative 71 percent approval on inflation management, the most urgent issue for Filipinos.

In the coming months, the incumbent will have to secure a formidable coalition, which could dent the appeal of the Duterte-backed ticket in next year’s midterm elections. What is at stake is nothing short of Mr. Marcos’ legacy—if not political survival—in his twilight years in office.

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