More challenges to democracy ahead

Dhaka—In the year of elections, four recent elections have sent some messages which deserve our attention, particularly considering that we are living at a time when democracy is under threat globally and extremism is on the rise. These apparently disparate elections and their results seem to have some common elements with lessons for liberal democratic forces around the world. The elections I am referring to are the Indian election, the European Parliament election, the United Kingdom election, and the election in France. Held between April 19 and July 7, these elections were closely observed for several reasons. And there have been arguments that these may serve as barometers to the future of democracy.

India’s election, with the largest number of voters in the world, and with the widespread prediction that Narendra Modi’s Bhartiya Janata Party will continue in power with a larger number of parliamentary seats this time around, ended up with a result which put a brake on Modi’s authoritarian tendencies. The European Parliament election, held between June 6-9, was a gigantic endeavor because of the number of countries involved—27, to be precise. With the growing appeal of rightwing populism in Europe, the question was: Will the far-right eclipse the centrists and shape the future trend in Europe?

The British election, held on July 4, delivered a shift of power after 14 years from the Conservative Party to the Labor Party, as anticipated. But the results revealed a few disturbing trends. The early election was a consequence of the dismal electoral performance of President Emmanuel Macron’s party in the European Parliament election. The elections almost brought the rightwing National Rally (NR) to the gates of power, only to be pushed away by the left alliance—New Popular Front—which came into existence only after the first round of voting.

The results of elections in India, France, and Britain demonstrate that voters are unhappy with the incumbents, but most importantly, their economic policies. It is not surprising that elections put incumbents in a difficult spot; elections are often considered as referendum on the incumbents, as they must defend their records. But in these instances, including in part in the Iranian election, it was beyond anti-incumbency.

While economy is not the only reason for unseating the Conservatives in Britain, there are other factors such as the dismal state of the National Health Service. Nevertheless, the bread-and-butter issue was the driving force. In India, unemployment, falling incomes, and inflation coupled with farmers’ discontent became the hurdles which Modi and his party failed to cross. France’s debt situation has been a matter of concern for all in the Eurozone, while dissatisfaction has been growing among French citizens. The lesson is clear: “It is the economy, stupid.”

The shock victory of France’s left alliance has allowed many across Europe to heave a sigh of relief. The victory of the Labor Party in Britain, although predicted ahead of the election, in some measures have engendered similar reactions. The Indian election result gives hope that the downward spiral is stopped, at least for now.

In France, even after the left parties came together and reached an understanding with the centrist parties, the vote share of the NR and its allies stood at 37.6 percent. These figures echo the results of the European Parliament elections, which saw a surge of rightwing parties in Germany, France, Italy, and Austria. Although the European Parliament has limited power for domestic issues, the rise of the rightwing parties was not a complete surprise. Indeed, one can take comfort in the fact that despite rightwing parties performing well, the center-right and center-left groupings have retained their dominance in the European Parliament. But what will happen in the future if the present trend continues is an open question. If there is a lesson, it is that the danger to liberal democracy is not over. Instead, the coming years will be more challenging.

Do these elections indicate a strategy to beat populist politics? In India, unlike the past two occasions, Modi’s populist rhetoric did not work as the opposition made the election a choice of policy more than of personality. France’s election, at least in the first round, sends a different message—populism works. The same is the message from the rise of the Reform UK party. In the European Parliament elections, the right-wing parties which did well are known for their populist rhetoric.

There is a need for soul searching as to how to address the rising appeal of populist demagogues. In the United States, Donald Trump is the personification of such pernicious populist politics. His appeal to the voters has not subsided; instead, with less than five months to go before the election, he is ahead of his opponent Joe Biden.

Both the Indian and French elections demonstrated that in the face of grave threats from undemocratic political forces, it is imperative to close the ranks and build an alliance. Similarly, the NPF in France is not a cohesive alliance. In fact, the partners were engaged in rhetorical battle until the first round of the election. Whether they can work together and work with centrist parties will be tested in the coming days. But for the moment, one must acknowledge, the left has played an historic role. The Daily Star/Asia News Network

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Ali Riaz is a distinguished professor of political science at Illinois State University, US, and a nonresident senior fellow of the Atlantic Council. This is a condensed version of the original article which appeared at The Daily Star.

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The Philippine Daily Inquirer is a member of the Asia News Network, an alliance of 22 media titles in the region.