Options for PH in West Philippine Sea dispute

In 2013, Dr. Aileen S.P. Baviera and Jay Batongbacal released a comprehensive primer on the territorial and maritime jurisdiction disputes in the West Philippine Sea (WPS). This guide, crafted from a Filipino perspective, provided a historical background, outlined prevailing conditions, and highlighted key issues related to the disputes. It also initiated a critical discourse on the formation of a strategic foreign policy for the Philippines and recommended several foreign policy postures.

First, Baviera and Batongbacal suggested that the Philippines prioritize diplomatic efforts through international support and peaceful negotiations. Second, they emphasized the need to actively engage with Asean and other international partners to address regional stability challenges. Third, they recommended upholding international legal avenues such as the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (Unclos) arbitration and peaceful assertion of territorial claims and maritime rights. Fourth, while supporting socioeconomic development, they advised strengthening the Armed Forces, essential for national security. Finally, they proposed a comprehensive governance approach in the WPS, encompassing maritime security, environmental protection, and disaster response.

Since the primer’s publication, the government has adopted some of the recommended foreign policy strategies, including initiating an arbitration case against China’s territorial claims in 2013, that led to a favorable ruling in 2016. With China rejecting it, however, the Duterte administration’s foreign policy shifted toward a more China-friendly stance starting in 2016. The logic behind this shift was to reduce confrontations over the South China Sea (SCS) and prioritize economic benefits, despite ongoing Chinese militarization and territorial claims.

From the events that have occurred since then, it can be inferred that the Duterte administration played a crucial role in the current status of the issue, with its “China-friendly” policy compromising our sovereignty over contested waters and hampering opportunities for us to establish alliances with both traditional and nontraditional partners.

As for the Marcos administration, it appears from President Marcos’ initial statements that he is veering away from Duterte’s foreign policy posture. His intention, he said early on, is to maintain the traditional alliance with the United States and recalibrate economic relations with China. He also urged international communities to adhere to the jurisdiction of the Unclos during his speech at the 77th United Nations General Assembly on Sept. 21, 2022.

He has since actively pursued stronger ties with the US, not just with talks and dialogues, but also joint military drills in the SCS between the US and the Philippine Coast Guard. High-level meetings with the US and Japan underscored this alignment. Conversely, despite tensions, the Philippines continues to maintain diplomatic channels with China, showing how our government remains open to finding common ground with it, but guided by an assertion of rights upheld by international law.

The Philippines’ multifaceted approach was also evident as it lobbied for support and investments from countries such as Australia, India, the United Kingdom, and Canada, as well as from regional organizations like the European Union.

It is clear that the current administration has checked most of the boxes in Baviera’s proposed primer. But recent events—including China’s aggressive use of water cannons on Philippine vessels on Panatag Shoal—have escalated tensions and raised the question anew: How will the Philippines strategically navigate the escalating maritime tensions in the WPS given the current status quo?

Continuing with the strategic foreign policy proposed by Baviera is still recommended, as it generally protects national interests while establishing diplomatic relations with other countries. Amid escalating tensions, engaging in military cooperation and modernizing armed forces and structures will have long-lasting benefits for the country, as will continued trade relations with China as they contribute to our economic well-being.

However, searching for alternatives is necessary to safeguard the future. Implementing a code of conduct, specifically with Asean, should be effectively pursued to create a healthy pressure and framework, and avoid miscalculations on the issue of disputed territories. Strong media coverage and dissemination of what’s happening on the ground also helps, as it could leverage more international support that would counterbalance China’s assertiveness.

—————-

Vincent C. Conde is a former senior high school teacher at the Luis Palad Integrated High School and a participant in the Japan Exchange and Teaching Programme 2024. He took his Bachelor’s Degree (BSED-Filipino) at the Southern Luzon State University, and is a graduate student at the University of the Philippines Diliman.