China: The smiling thug

The conflict between the Philippines and China on the West Philippine Sea (WPS) issue has reached a major escalation. Chinese personnel on board more than eight motorboats rammed and then boarded two of our navy boats that were attempting to deliver supplies to the BRP Sierra Madre, our naval ship marooned in Ayungin Shoal.

Using machetes, knives, axes, hammers, and sticks, the Chinese personnel slashed and deflated our navy boats, destroyed our vessels’ navigational equipment, confiscated our forces’ firearms, and physically assaulted our navy people. Some of our personnel suffered injuries, with one soldier even losing a thumb.

While this latest clash represents a far more violent behavior by Chinese forces compared to past incidents, there are still two things noticeable from the actuations and pronouncements of China.

First, China has been holding its punches by refraining from using its superior military arsenal. As a military superpower, China can easily stamp out all attempts by the Philippines to exercise any claim on the WPS. But instead of employing its far more sophisticated navy ships and naval forces, China uses its civilian coast guard vessels and personnel (or at least, it is forced to disguise its military assets as coast guard). Instead of using missiles and battleship gunnery, China employs water cannons. Instead of using superior firearms, its forces wield knives, hammers, and stick.

Second, China makes an effort to paint itself as a country acting reasonably and sensibly. Instead of employing pure brute force to steamroll its occupation of the WPS, China goes to great lengths concocting and asserting a historical tale for its ownership claim over our waters, and always painting itself as the aggrieved instead of the offender that it’s always is. And instead of just physically assaulting our fishermen and troops—just like the vicious colonizers of olden times—China tries to justify its muted attacks by arguing that it acts as a civilized member of the community of nations.

Why does China exert efforts to project itself as a suit-wearing pirate? Is it afraid that the United States and its allies will come to the rescue of the Philippines? This could be one key reason, but it’s not the sole and pivotal factor that explains China’s behavior. With US military resources drained and the American public grown weary of two ongoing wars where the US is heavily involved—Israel vs Palestine and Russia vs Ukraine—China likely calculates that the US has little appetite for involvement in a third war between China and the Philippines. Besides, unlike Taiwan which has a microchip industry that’s seriously critical to the US, the Philippines has no element of indispensability for America’s interest.

Is China afraid that its economy will suffer because of an economic boycott from Western nations, just like what Russia has been facing because of its invasion of Ukraine? This could also be a second key factor, but probably also not the solitary and pivotal reason. As an economic superpower, China has its tentacles well entrenched in all corners of the world economy. It has successfully positioned itself as a vital economic partner of so many nations. Hence, the West will have a harder time implementing an economic embargo against China, without bringing equal hardship to their own economies, and to the world economy.

Apart from its concerns on the military and economic counter-measures of its world rivals, another consequential factor that influences China’s actions is its apprehensions on the damage to its international reputation. It tries to avoid openly appearing as a world bully by shrouding its military actions as a civilian defense initiative and by infusing its claims with a modicum of reason. It tries to escape being branded as a rogue country in the community of civilized nations.

In addition to the military and economic fronts, therefore, a third key front in the Philippine conflict with China is the international image arena. The Philippines has puny powers on the military and economic fronts, but it enjoys far superior strength in the international image arena. The Philippine government must draw up battle plans in this third arena in order to harness and exploit its superior advantage in this front. It should explore drawing up connections, and aligning its voice, with other people who are victims of Chinese gangsterism like the Uyghurs, Tibetans, Hong Kongers, Taiwanese, and others. With a citizenry widely reputed as online dwellers, immense people’s support can be harnessed by our government in an international campaign on the third battle front, but only if it helps orchestrate schemes and methods in our people’s guerilla initiatives on cyberspace.

Standing alone, we absolutely have no chance in an economic and military conflict with China, but the Asian behemoth cannot walk away without a bludgeoned nose in the international image arena. We can peel off the fake smile, strip the pretentious suit, and expose China in its naked glory as a violent thug and barbaric pirate.

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