Separated, living-in, unhappy

This week’s Social Weather Stations (SWS) media release is: “First Quarter 2024 Social Weather Survey: 50% of Filipino adults agree, 31% disagree, and 17% are undecided about legalizing divorce for irreconcilably separated couples” (www.sws.org.ph, 5/31/24). The survey, done nationwide on March 21-24, 2024, had tested the statement, “Married couples who have already separated and cannot reconcile anymore should be allowed to divorce so they can get legally married again” (“Ang mga mag-asawang hiwalay na at hindi na maaaring magkasundo pa ay dapat pahintulutang mag-diborsyo para ang mga ito ay legal na makapag-asawa uli.”).

The answer choices, shown to respondents on a card, were: Strongly Agree, Somewhat Agree, Undecided, Somewhat Disagree, and Strongly Disagree. SWS classifies the net agreement score of 50 – 31 = +19 as “moderately strong” support for the divorce proposal. In principle, a net score ranges from +100 (unanimous agreement) to -100 (unanimous disagreement).

SWS has done this unsponsored probe of adults (18 years old or more) 12 times. The survey dates and their respective net agreement scores were: May 2005, -2; March 2011, +18; December 2014, +31; March 2015, +14; September 2016, +25; March 2017, +20; December 2017, +23; December 2019, +29; September 2021, +9; March 2023, +44; June 2023, +27; and March 2024, +19. SWS classifies the single-digit scores of 2005 and 2021 as neutral, neither favorable nor unfavorable. In 2014 and 2023, opinions were very strong (+30 to +49). At other times, they were moderately positive (+10 to +29). The balance of public opinion on the legalization of divorce has never been unfavorable. But will it secure the balance of opinion in Congress and the approval of the President?

The proposed legalization of divorce potentially affects over three million Filipinos. There are now about 73.5 million Filipino adults, as officially projected. This is the base to which the proportions from scientific surveys of adults, like those of SWS, may be applied.

Every SWS survey classifies the civil status of a respondent as follows: 1a. never married; 1b. widow/widower; 1c. separated/divorced; 2a. first marriage; 2b. married, formerly widow/widower; 2c. married, formerly separated/divorced; 3a. living-in with first partner; 3b. living-in, formerly widow/widower; and 3c. living-in, formerly separated/divorced.

This is implemented by showing the respondent the full list to choose from, making it essentially a self-classification system. Hence the first three are “singles,” the next three are “marrieds,” and the last three are “living-ins.” The respondent does not need to specify whether separated or divorced. The answer “divorced” is accepted without question—after all, divorce obtained abroad is legal; and, under Shariah law divorce is legal for Filipino Muslims. The answer “married, formerly separated/divorced” is accepted without question. Survey interviewers are trained to accept answers without argument.

I will shift now to our December 2023 survey, which found “singles” at 29 percent, “marrieds” at 54 percent, and “live-ins” at 17 percent. Of the singles, 3.4 percentage points or 2.5 million Filipinos are in group 1c, separated/divorced; of the live-ins, 1.3 percentage points or 900,000 Filipinos are in group 3c, formerly separated/divorced. Passage of a divorce law at this time would encourage those in group 1c to look for new partners to marry, and let those in group 3c know they could legally marry their present partners—together these are 4.7 percent of adults, or 3.4 million Filipinos.

Separation is related to unhappiness. I cited the December 2023 survey, because that was the sole SWS round in 2023 that included self-reported happiness (not yet published; see “Numbers on ‘happiness’,” 3/25/23). In the December 2023 survey, 89.7 percent felt either Very or Fairly Happy (“happy” for short) and 10.3 percent felt either Not Very or Not At All Happy (“unhappy” for short).

There is considerable variation in unhappiness across marital groups. In December 2023, the unhappy percentage among singles was 12.6—a mix of a low 8.8 among never-marrieds, a medium 16.0 among widows/widowers, and a rather high 23.9 among the separated/divorced (estimated 600,000 persons).

Among marrieds on the other hand, the unhappy percentage was only 8.9—a mix of 9.1 among first-marrieds, 9.7 among former widows/widowers, and absolute zero among the former separated/divorced (who had managed to get a second chance to marry).

Finally, among live-ins, the unhappy percentage was 10.6—a mix of a low 8.5 among first-timers, a fairly high 21.2 among former widows/widowers (estimated 100,000 persons; perhaps their present partners couldn’t legally marry), and an extremely high 30.1 among the former separated/divorced (estimated 275,000 persons).

The data indicate that the number of unhappy Filipinos would be significantly reduced by making marriage to a new partner a legal option for separated persons.

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