Record high temperatures: Is this climate change?

The country has been experiencing extremely high temperatures in the last few weeks. As some skeptics argue, there are questions about whether this is due to climate change or just part of natural variability.

A new field of study called attribution science is providing answers to these questions. It aims to determine if specific weather conditions are significantly influenced by climate change and to what extent.

On May 14, the World Weather Attribution (WWA) released the results of a study on the heatwaves in Asia. The study showed that the heatwave events in the Philippines would not be possible without the effect of human-induced climate change. The temperature in the country is 1.2 degrees Celsius higher because of global warming, whereas the contribution of ENSO is only 0.2 degrees Celsius.

The impacts of these heatwaves are considerable, affecting various groups such as construction workers, transport drivers, farmers, and fishers. Many have lost their livelihoods, suffered income reduction, and are at risk of health problems. Offices and schools have been closed to minimize exposure to high temperatures, and there has been an increase in fatalities due to heat strokes.

Looking ahead, the study revealed that as the planet approaches 2 degrees Celsius warmer compared to pre-industrial times, extreme heat waves like the current ones will become more common.

To prepare for a hotter future, an integrated approach to heat adaptation is necessary, requiring multisectoral planning and implementation. Various cooling options such as trees or forests, water, and air-conditioning need to be evaluated while keeping in mind that increased use of electricity will lead to more carbon emissions. The design of buildings and houses must account for rising heat loads, with specific measures differing in rural and urban areas.

The bigger picture is that climate change is real. Now, more than ever, we need to get ready for a future where weather extremes wreak havoc on lives, livelihoods, and ecosystems.

Dr. Rodel D. Lasco,

executive director,

The OML Center