No other country in the world today is as tense as the Philippines when it brings regular supplies to its West Philippine Sea territories because of China’s bullying tactics. No less than President Marcos is feeling the tension amid the grim possibility that things could get out of hand. His hecklers should instead compliment and support him for his moves meant to protect the country, including attending the United States-Japan-Philippines trilateral summit on April 11, where the three allies forged a US-Indo-Pacific strategy.
Another crucial move of his administration is holding an extended military training exercise in the West Philippine Sea from April 22 to May 10. The exercise included maritime operations of the Philippine, US, and French navies in the country’s exclusive economic zone. A unique feature of the exercise is the participation of 14 nations whose representatives acted as international observers of the event. The willingness of the 14 nations to get involved reflects their hope for the promotion of peace and harmony in the Indo-Pacific region.
China’s risky gray-zone tactics indicate its belief that it now has tactical and operational edge over Taiwan’s military with its strong air defense systems, considerable firepower, network-centric warfare capabilities, and substantial manpower. Smug in its military capability and thoughts of the distractions faced by the US in helping Israel and Ukraine, China might conclude that the current climate is now the “ripe moment” to attack Taiwan, and that it no longer has to wait for the 2049 commemoration of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army in retaking Taiwan.
China considers Taiwan a linchpin to its hegemonic ambitions across the entirety of East Asia. Should it succeed in occupying Taiwan and deploying military units in it, it would be well-positioned to deny the US and its allies the ability to maintain a forward presence in the Pacific. The net result would be greater freedom of action for China across East Asia and easier pursuit of its further territorial ambitions.
China, however, needs to be reminded that defeating Taiwan would not be a walk in the park. Invading a developed island by itself would be a formidable challenge, given Taiwan’s rugged geography, formidable military preparations, resolute capacity, and vital role within the global supply chain. Neither should China forget that it would be facing the richest and third-richest and battle-tested nations in the world, which will not allow it to put in jeopardy the $5.3 trillion worth of goods and the over 50 percent of the world’s shipping containers that pass through the West Philippine Sea.
Furthermore, the latest condemnation by the Group of Seven (G7) nations issued on April 19 of China’s actions in Philippine waters and the 14-nation participation in the Balikatan exercises should send a strong message to China to abandon its plan of invading Taiwan, as it would disrupt international relations, cause a breakdown in global supply chains, result in sanctions by the G7 countries on China’s financial sector, and risk another world war.
China should also take note of Bloomberg Economics’ observation that its intended action will make it suffer a 16.7 percent drop in its GDP. Thus, it may be observed that given Taiwan’s geographic advantages and robust defense system, the public and international disapproval of China’s behavior, the consequent significant cost to global supply chains, the drastic GDP drop for China and the world, and the disturbance in international relations—an invasion of Taiwan becomes a formidable and risky undertaking.
The situation can only lead to the conclusion that maintaining the status quo is in the best interest of all parties involved. And operationalizing this status quo means the formulation of an effective code of conduct in the Indo-Pacific region, as well as the strict observance of the provisions of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and the Permanent Court of Arbiration Arbitral Award to the Philippines.
Meliton B. Juanico,
melitonbjuanico@gmail.com