Leading from the ‘Middle powers’

Today’s most pressing challenges—as well as the future’s most promising opportunities—are not bound by borders. Strengthening our economies, improving our collective security, addressing climate change, and unlocking the benefits of frontier technologies all depend on cooperative approaches.

Yet, the world is at risk of drifting toward a perilous state in which collaborative agendas are replaced by confrontational mindsets.

A more contentious geopolitical climate is of such concern that in September, at the opening of the United Nations (UN) General Assembly in New York, Secretary General António Guterres warned, “Global challenges are mounting. And we seem incapable of coming together to respond.”

Indeed, alarm bells abound. Just 12 percent of the UN’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals are on target to be met by the 2030 deadline, though thankfully, there are some bright spots. At the Group of Twenty summit last September, India made it a priority to include representation from the Global South in the dialogue and steered leaders of the world’s largest economies to agreement on a joint declaration on climate financing, global debt, and other issues—this despite predictions that agreement would be impossible to achieve.

At the UN Climate Conference in Dubai in November, the United Arab Emirates committed to leading an “inclusive and safe space for all participants,” and parties agreed for the first time to transition away from fossil fuels toward renewable sources of energy. Later last month, Saudi Arabia and the World Economic Forum (WEF) convened leaders from around the world for a special meeting in Riyadh on strengthening cooperation, particularly between the Global North and South.

What these instances have in common is that the successes are due in large measure to an inclusive approach and to the leadership of so-called “middle powers”—countries such as India, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia—that are not global superpowers but are playing an outsized role in moving the global agenda forward.

Today, at a time of geopolitical turbulence, middle-power leadership—particularly from the Middle East—will determine whether the world makes progress on critical security, environmental, and technology priorities. Because the solutions to several of the world’s most pressing challenges not only run through the region, but require the type of collaborative approaches middle powers have championed.

On global security, leadership from Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, will be vital in forging paths forward in two of the most urgent crisis: Ukraine and Gaza. In August 2023, Jeddah hosted peace talks for Ukraine that were vital in bringing to the table key parties from the Global North and South. In a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud in Riyadh earlier this year, the two discussed ways to operationalize the Ukrainian peace plan.

Riyadh has also been a critical player in working to bring parties to negotiate a ceasefire in Gaza. At the WEF’s Annual Meeting in Davos this January, Saudi Arabia Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud reiterated the Kingdom’s commitment to formally recognize Israel if it takes steps toward a two-state solution with Palestine.

On climate change, the success of a green energy transition that is equitable and fosters growth can only happen if capitals in the Middle East help move it forward. Because while the region produces approximately 30 percent of the world’s oil and 23 percent of its natural gas, many countries are poised to become green power leaders of the future. Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud, recently said the Kingdom is committed to being the “centerpiece” in the renewable market. Indeed, through its Vision 2030 plan, the country is diversifying nonoil exports and aiming to increase its share of nonoil GDP from 16 percent to 50 percent by the end of the decade.

On unlocking new technology opportunities ahead, generative artificial intelligence has the potential to add between $2.6 trillion and $4.4 trillion in economic benefits annually, according to McKinsey and Co. But this can only happen if stakeholders around the world work together. Here, Saudi Arabia has been building partnerships with countries around the world and has committed to an annual investment of 2.5 percent of GDP in the research, development, and innovation sector by 2040.

At a complex geopolitical moment, when challenges demand collective approaches, if middle powers continue to shape solutions and do so in a collaborative way, we will be on course toward a stronger future.

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Børge Brende is president of the World Economic Forum, which convened the Special Meeting on Global Collaboration, Growth, and Energy for Development from April 28-29, 2024, in Riyadh.