Game-changing PH concept on gray zone

“Assertive Transparency.”

That’s the term used by SeaLight director Ray Powell of Standford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation to refer to the Philippine-developed concept for countering maritime gray zone activities, particularly in the West Philippine Sea (WPS).

Powell describes this and the 2016 arbitral ruling as this century’s “two great innovations in counter gray zone statecraft” in maritime space. They are game-changers, he adds.

As Powell said in a SeaLight publication on Oct. 8, 2023, assertive transparency is “the tactic of deliberately seeking out the dark spaces where gray zone actors conduct their illegal, mali[cious], and coercive acts, and then exposing them to public view.” By exposing what China wishes to keep hidden with regard to its unlawful, provocative, and dangerous actions in the WPS, this Philippine tactic aims to establish three conditions in its pursuit of the objective of deterring and defeating China’s gray zone activities. These conditions are: strengthening national resilience by rallying domestic support for the campaign; building international support, and imposing reputational costs on China to force it to recalculate the increased risks of its continuing aggression.

For more details on this game-changing concept, Powell’s paper on the subject is featured in the Fourth Quarter 2023 edition of Stratbase ADR Institute’s Defense and Security Paper. Commodore Jay Tarriela of the Philippine Coast Guard also has an insightful article published in The Diplomat on April 19, 2023, that explains why the Philippines has decided to start exposing to the general public China’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea, something unheard of during the previous administration. Among the various factors mentioned by Tarriela is adopting this shift in policy and tactic to reflect the government’s commitment and resolve to protect the country’s sovereignty, and to convey the message that the Philippines “will not be cowed or coerced into submission.”

Gauging from China’s bellicose statements and veiled threats of “serious difficulties” in its relations with the Philippines following the various incidents in the WPS — including attempts to cast the Philippines as a reckless provocateur — it is safe to assume that this assertive transparency campaign is working, as the prospect of incurring a reputational cost may be causing China to think twice about further escalating its actions.

In a Dec. 6, 2023 article on Fulcrum, a publication of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, senior fellow Collin Koh of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies notes that despite the exchange of accusations and general tension between the Philippines and China over the various incidents in the WPS, China has not attempted any coercive economic reprisals against the Philippines so far. It is common knowledge that China is not shy to weaponize its economic might and leverage over its trading partners to get what it wants. Yet, Koh observes that since the start of the implementation of the assertive transparency campaign in February last year, he has found no indication of Chinese economic reprisals based on his review of Philippine trade and investment data.

He explains this by noting that with its current economic challenges, China might not want to portray itself as an “increasingly less reliable and therefore unattractive trade and investment partner.” He further notes that “if China desires to uphold its image as a proponent of common development in the Global South and a strong supporter of economic integration, weaponizing trade and investment against the Philippines may be foolhardy.” Those are very significant points that Koh makes which are highly relevant to the use of assertive transparency to impose a reputational risk on China.

The WPS issue continues to be a huge challenge, yet we have managed once again to develop a game-changing concept that has enabled us to stand up for our sovereign rights despite overwhelming odds. If we ever hope to surmount this challenge, then we need to believe that we can do it. We cannot be divided on this issue because if we want most of the world behind us, they also need to see that we stand proudly united as a nation and people on this issue.

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Moira G. Gallaga served three Philippine presidents as presidential protocol officer and was posted as a diplomat at the Philippine Consulate General in Los Angeles, and the Philippine Embassy in Washington.