The 2028 political circus has begun

Former president Rodrigo Duterte must be fuming mad these days. From a virtual god whose words were law just over a year ago, he has been reduced to a mere mortal with gripes against the new government. As incumbent president, lawmakers who crossed his path cowered in silence when he bamboozled them with insults or threats. No one was exempted from his tirades, because he dished out foul language even against the Pope and the United States president.

In a television interview last week, Duterte lashed out at Makabayan lawmaker and ACT Teachers party list Rep. France Castro, with threats to kill. He confessed that he advised his daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, to tell the public that her now scuttled confidential funds would have been used to kill Castro and her allies. Progressive groups associated with Castro announced that they will file criminal charges against the former president because of the threats. Lawmakers from major political blocs in the House of Representatives issued a rare joint statement chastising Duterte to stop “making threats or insinuating harm” against a member of Congress.

In the same interview, Duterte also declared that he used his intelligence funds as then Davao City mayor to finance the killing of alleged communists in his city. He said: “My intelligence funds, I used it to buy. I had all of them killed. That’s why Davao is like that. Your companions, [Castro], I really had them killed. That’s the truth.” With said admissions, former senator Antonio Trillanes IV declared that he submitted to the International Criminal Court (ICC) the interview footage as additional evidence in support of the ongoing investigation against Duterte for crimes against humanity.

Still, in the same interview, the former president called the lower house as the “most rotten institution” in the country. He called for an investigation against the lower chamber, and against Speaker Martin Romualdez in particular whom he accused of “swallowing” pork barrel funds. In the same joint statement earlier mentioned, leaders of major parties rebuked Duterte by declaring that their funds and expenses have passed examination by the Commission on Audit.

Duterte’s tirades against Castro and corruption in the House are mere smokescreens. His real gripe is the removal of the confidential and intelligence funds of his daughter as vice president and education secretary. Besides, he complains about issues he himself tolerated, benefited from, and encouraged, during his presidency. He gave key cabinet positions to the group he accuses of being communists, early in his presidency. He gave zero confidential or intelligence funds to then Vice President Leni Robredo. He tolerated the pork barrel system in order to buy the blind loyalty of Congress.

This is not to say that the Marcos administration is undeserving of the heaps of criticism thrown its way. As a matter of fact, the scuttlebutt even among some lawmakers is that corruption now is worse compared to the previous administration. Smuggling is rampant and it’s killing local industries. There’s lack of direction and focus. There’s a penchant for window-dressing, rosy but empty speeches, and travel junkets. There’s no sense of urgency, even while the whole country reels from hard economic times.

While the Duterte father and daughter tandem has joined the political skirmishes, President Marcos has stayed out of the fray, at least for now. But he can’t stay away for long. His continuing silence will be viewed as acquiescence to his allies’ machinations. Any statement he makes that favors the Dutertes will alienate his loyal allies.

The Dutertes are obviously at a disadvantage. The supreme power of the purse, which ensures the loyalty of political lords and security forces, is with the Marcos camp. The threat of ICC prosecution is a sword that the Marcos camp can keep hanging over the head of the former president. What was done to former senator Leila de Lima can be done to both Duterte father and daughter for the killings and corruption scandals that have been unearthed but left unprosecuted domestically. The only “weapon” that the Dutertes wield is their continuing hold on a perceived substantial chunk of voters, which they can use to either elect their own candidate in 2028 or dangle as swing votes in favor of a third candidate.

As the Marcos and Duterte camps smear each other, it will strengthen the viability of a dark horse in 2028. Sen. Raffy Tulfo is bruited about in political circles as someone who fits the populist mold favored by the masses in these times of desperation and age of disillusionment. If the Marcos and Duterte camps’ initial choices prove unviable, it could be a race to co-opt a strong third candidate like Tulfo, in order to ensure protection and extend influence.

The way things are unfolding, the political circus leading to the 2028 presidential elections has arrived early in town.

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