Crisis communications essential to peace

When President Marcos visited China in January of this year, one of the highlights of his talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping was the establishment of a so-called direct line of communications between our two countries in the event of a crisis.

Specifically, the line will be between the Maritime and Ocean Affairs Office of our Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) on the one hand, and the Department of Boundary and Ocean Affairs of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, on the other.

This week, however, we learned that when the DFA called its counterpart at the height of an incident near Ayungin Shoal—on Saturday, Aug. 5, the China Coast Guard used water cannons on Philippine boats that were on a resupply mission to the BRP Sierra Madre—there was no answer at the other end of the hotline.

What, then, could be done when one party picks up the phone to talk but the other party refuses the dialogue?

This was exactly the topic of a workshop that the Stratbase ADR Institute held with our friends at the United States Institute of Peace and Australian Aid on Aug. 10 and 11 in Makati City. The well-attended workshop had five panel discussions—each engaging, even riveting—in the context of the very recent turn of events off Ayungin Shoal.

The panel discussions revolved around the efficacy of crisis communications mechanisms in state relations, diplomacy for crisis management channels in Philippine-China and US-China relations, establishing communications mechanisms to avoid future crises, multilateral approaches to managing crises with China, and lessons from the Philippines’ crisis experience with China.

The general consensus appears to be that both the Ayungin Shoal incident and its aftermath are not unexpected for a country like China, given its mindset and its previous actions. The water cannon incident appears deliberate, and, as one of our panelists said, they may not have picked up the crisis hotline simply because this was not a crisis for them.

Filipinos are awaiting the government’s next course of action after what happened on Aug. 5. Surveys we have commissioned since 2016 show us that the majority of Filipinos, even as they are preoccupied with economic concerns, are also aware of what is going on in the West Philippine Sea.

Our most recent commissioned survey, done by Pulse Asia in June 2023, revealed that 80 percent of respondents agreed alliances should be formed and relationships strengthened with other countries.

Respondents also said that the Marcos administration should strengthen our military capability (72 percent), conduct joint military patrols and exercises with allied countries (64 percent), and shift the focus of our defense institutions to external threats (61 percent).

An earlier survey also revealed that 89 percent of Filipinos believe we should assert our rights in the West Philippine Sea.

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What, then, should be done in this crisis, especially since China refuses to acknowledge the premise of the dialogue—that they are infringing on what rightfully belongs to the Philippines?

Initial statements by Mr. Marcos—relatively firmer and stronger than the position taken by his immediate predecessor—are encouraging, but there remains a lot of room for improvement. The experts we gathered in our workshop agreed that we should never stop talking to China, and we should take advantage of both official and unofficial channels to get our point across. Defense and security issues are intimately linked with economic and other equally compelling issues, so there is no way that the other party can completely cease talking to us.

Most importantly, and this is what we have been doing so far, we should capitalize on the widespread support expressed, in word and deed, by our friends and allies in the international community. These nations share our values and our commitment to the preservation of the rules-based international order. They have articulated their condemnation of China’s acts and have asserted that our victory at the Permanent Court of Arbitration is sufficient basis to strengthen our defense mechanisms.

And so, this is our message to the Chinese: We Filipinos have the law on our side, and no amount of stonewalling, propaganda, or clever messaging can change this fact. We have the support not just of one or two peace-loving nations, but numerous ones who value the fundamental principles of decency and conduct.

Finally, this is our nation and our territory. We will not cower before bullies.

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Dindo Manhit is founder and CEO of the Stratbase Group.