They say in politics, there are neither permanent friends nor permanent enemies. But the truth is a tad more complicated: even political interests can change over time depending on the broader constellation of forces as well as the sheer power of human reflection.
Amateurs tend to view politics as largely static, thus confidently forecasting future trends based on ultimately transient variables. As for conspiracy theory, it’s often the refuge of the intellectually indolent. Actual politics is, in modern societies, far more indeterminate and, especially in besieged democracies like ours, highly contested. In short, plot twists often trump seemingly unbreakable patterns.
And this, dear reader, brings us to the latest realignments in Philippine politics, which took place not long after former senator Leila de Lima was yet again acquitted on another baseless charge, and not long before the incumbent announces his new Cabinet picks following the end of the one-year appointment ban on losing candidates in last year’s elections.
Make no mistake: the incumbent is in a privileged position to assemble a truly inclusive Cabinet from across the ideological spectrum. Who knows, there might even be a “grand coalition” in the making, if not a whiff of a Lincolnite “team of rivals.”
To truly understand the shifting sands in Philippine politics, one must look no further than the House of Representatives, the unmistakable vortex of traditional politics. In just the latest plot twist in the House, former president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo was “demoted” from a “senior” deputy speaker position—itself, lower than the speakership post, which she occupied under the former administration and aspired for under a newly elected one last year.
After initially adopting a policy of strategic silence, the former president mused about the possible reason behind her “demotion,” namely the (baseless) suspicion that she was “plotting a ‘coup’ against” the current House supremo. Arroyo was quick to clarify, however, that “my actions may have been misconstrued” and that she harbored no intention to replicate her controversial ascent to speakership in the not-so-distant past. Remember the dramatic set of events, on the eve of Rodrigo Duterte’s third State of the Nation Address, behind the downfall of former speaker Pantaleon Alvarez in 2018?
It didn’t take long before her most powerful ally, Vice President Sara Duterte, announced her resignation from the ruling party, citing her dissatisfaction with “political toxicity” and “execrable political powerplay.” The significance of this move can’t be overstated. Lest we forget, the Lakas-Christian Muslim Democrats (Lakas-CMD) was instrumental to the fateful formation of the “UniTeam” between the House of Marcos and House of Duterte in the 2022 elections. As I wrote in a forecast piece for the Monocle magazine in London in late-2021, once the two powerful families join forces, the fate of the presidential elections is effectively sealed.
Just as interesting, however, is President Marcos’ characterization of the latest developments. A pacifist by temperament, and eager to keep powerful allies, the incumbent simply characterized Arroyo’s demotion as nothing more than a “run-of-the-mill … reorganization” in the House. As for the vice president, he defended her recent decision by stating how Sara Duterte “cannot allow herself to be distracted” because of her load of responsibilities. Mr. Marcos’ subtle response is important because it signifies his uniquely nonconfrontational approach to politics, which, by all indications, is serving him well.
Sen. Nancy Binay recently wondered if the country needs a leader who can leverage “fear factor” and the politics of rage. But we saw how that brand of governance ended up creating more mess than gains for the country, which heavily suffered under the former populist in Malacañang. A year into office, Mr. Marcos has, by sedulously avoiding direct clashes with any major camp, overseen a “silent revolution,” which has restored relations with democratic allies, rebooted a brutal drug war, and recreated a semblance of press freedom and political sanity after six years of demagogic euphoria.
In a bizarre twist of events, the son of the former strongman is in a historic position to create a new legacy altogether by, inter alia, appointing a whole set of progressive-liberal bureaucrats to a new and revamped Cabinet without fully alienating his more traditional allies, who have been constantly kept at bay. As the German statesman Otto von Bismarck once remarked, actual politics is about “the capacity of always choosing at each instant, in constantly changing situations, the least harmful, the most useful.”
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rheydarian@inquirer.com.ph