The first clash of empires: Rome vs. Carthage
As the United States and China face off in the 21st-century clash of civilizations, we need to delve back into history to see whether there are parallels we can learn from. I have previously pointed out how the Thucydides Trap, first described by Greek historian Thucydides on the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta and more recently identified by Harvard professor Graham Allison may not be the most appropriate analogy for the modern age.
A more interesting historical clash of great powers would have been Rome versus Qin China around 200 B.C. to 200 A.D. But that never happened. In comparative terms, the Roman Empire had an estimated 50 to 90 million people, roughly 20 percent of the world’s population, covering an area of 5 million square kilometers, compared with the larger Han Empire of roughly 60 million people covering an area of 6.5 million sq. km. Rome was both a land and maritime power, whereas Han China was essentially land-based. The two empires never clashed, because they were separated by vast geographical distance. The only recorded link between the two empires were Roman emissaries sent to the Han Court, during the reign of Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius Antonius (161-180 A.D.).
The more telling clash of empires was between Rome and Carthage during the three Punic Wars (264-146 B.C.). Carthage was essentially an older (beginning 8th century B.C.) Phoenician maritime power that controlled trade in the Mediterranean Sea, backed up by rich, fertile lands in Northern Africa. Rome was the rising power expanding outward at the time of the first Punic wars. Carthage was more interested in pushing trade and guarding its trading monopoly in Western Mediterranean, whereas Rome was more interested in expansion through conquests.
Consequently, once Carthage began to lose her naval superiority, there was a period of attrition in which both sides fought indecisively with ruinous finance to both. In 241 B.C., Rome won decisively the naval battle of Aegates, conquering Sicily and Carthage sued for peace, paying terrible reparations.
After initial losses, the Romans regrouped and once the Numidians rebelled against Carthage in 213 B.C., the Roman general Scipio landed in Africa in 204 B.C. and with his Numidian allies, marched on Carthage. After suing for peace, Carthage was stripped of all its territories and had to pay ruinous reparations. In the interregnum, the Numidians ate at Carthaginian power, with Carthage being finally totally destroyed in the Third Punic War (149-146 B.C.). Carthaginians were sold to slavery and the whole region was incorporated as a Roman province, becoming effectively Rome’s breadbasket providing more than half a million tonnes of grain to Italy every year (Morris, 2011). When the Germanic vandals conquered Carthage in 439 A.D., it was the end of the Western Rome empire.
The Punic wars basically demonstrated that ultimately, political will, military technology, and discipline, plus economic power over food, energy, and minerals mattered in great power rivalry. Great power conflicts have their origins in national, sectoral, and personal (all human) interests, but historically, they occurred without caring about the natural environment. Roman deforestation of Western Europe, as well as Spanish conquest of Latin Americas, all had serious climatic consequences that only became apparent later.
Historian Geoffrey Parker (Global Crisis, 2013) documented how the mini-ice age in the mid-17th century saw revolutions and collapse of Ming China (1644 A.D.), the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, Spanish Monarchy, with rebellions in the Ottoman, Russian, and Mughal empires, Sweden, Denmark, and Holland. That mini-ice age came about because the devastation of Native American population in the 16th century caused a reforestation that cooled global temperatures, with famines across different parts of the world.
We are thus witnessing the confluence of climate change, technology, demographics, growing social inequality, and geopolitical rivalry all converging into a planetary state of disorder, in which no single nation is powerful enough to restore order. Most of us are disorientated by an age of misinformation and disinformation, where societies and communities are polarized by narratives which pushes toward extreme fundamentalist positions. There is no centrist coalition strong enough to restore a balanced view of moderation and tolerance.
Balance has been lost because populists and elites alike profit from imbalance. The Punic wars showed that more often than not, human beings fight over short-term interests rather than working hard toward building long-term peace. All too often, war that appear glorious ended up with long, ruinous trauma on both humans and the planet. It is easier to shout for war, than to work hard for peace. For those who care about our future generations, give peace a chance. Asia News Network
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Andrew Sheng is former chair of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission.
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The Philippine Daily Inquirer is a member of the Asia News Network, an alliance of 22 media titles in the region.
