Ukraine war and PH’s defense modernization
Higher prices, short supplies, delivery delays, and diversion could be some pressing challenges facing Philippine defense acquisitions and modernization as a result of the war in Ukraine. This war has led to a dramatic increase in the demand for military equipment, arms, and ammunition. The increased demand, particularly among North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) countries, is caused by the massive amount of military aid sent to Ukraine, and by nations rearming because of a perceived need to deter further Russian aggression.
In terms of military aid to Ukraine, Deutsche Welle quoted a think tank study which said that in total, 128 billion euros have been provided or promised thus far. The United States is the largest contributor, with its Defense department saying it has sent more than $30 billion worth of gear to Ukraine since the Russian invasion on Feb. 24, 2022. This amount is almost half of what the US spent on military assistance to Afghanistan that, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, totaled $72.7 billion between 2001 and 2020. This does not include the cost of deploying US troops and their equipment and supplies.
In terms of increasing national defense capabilities in the face of perceived security threats from Russia, the International Center for Defense and Security, citing Nato sources, said that 2022 will be the eighth consecutive year of increased defense spending by European allies and Canada, with a cumulative investment of almost $350 billion since 2014. Almost all Nato members expect further spending, and in many cases quite large increases for 2023 and beyond. In Germany alone, its lower house of parliament approved the creation last year of a 100 billion euro special defense fund, on top of Germany’s regular defense budget. The New York Times has reported that US military spending is surging, creating a new boom for arms makers.
The war in Ukraine has also raised the specter of armed conflict in East and Southeast Asia, leading to increased defense spending in the region. In the same report, The New York Times said Japan plans to double its own defense spending over the next few years. All these mean that the cost of meeting Philippine defense modernization needs could increase. The dramatic upswing in demand for military equipment and supplies makes arms sales a seller’s market. There may also be a diversion of equipment and supplies originally intended for the Philippines to Ukraine. The massive strain on the US defense budget caused by the war in Ukraine could affect US military assistance to other parts of the world, including our own.
Given the current situation in our region, these constraints on our defense modernization efforts couldn’t have come at a worse time. An important lesson here is the need for the Philippines to become more self-sufficient through a dramatic improvement in local defense industry capability. The good news is that the Philippines is poised to take a major step closer toward having its own vibrant defense industry, with commitments from the Senate and the House of Representatives to pass the proposed Philippine Defense Industry Development Act as early as June, according to news reports.
The Philippines will also have to factor in the higher defense acquisition costs caused by the war in Ukraine in its budget process. The Department of National Defense-Armed Forces of the Philippines must be given considerably more funds for procurement in the annual budget. The increased costs and possible delays must also be considered when the AFP renews its 15-year modernization program that started in 2012. No dramatic decrease in US military aid is expected, however, because of shared values and interests between our country and the US, and our history of close defense relations. Certain groups in the US that oppose the Philippine government and our close ties with the US have previously tried to take advantage of US budget difficulties to demand an end to its military assistance to the country.
Fortunately, the Philippines has been able to blunt these efforts by engaging the US Congress, chiefly through the work of the Philippine Embassy in Washington. In addition, concerns raised by some members of the US Congress have been effectively addressed by Philippine defense and security agencies. It is not likely that these opposition groups will be able to use the war in Ukraine to compromise PH-US defense cooperation. With the likelihood of peace remote and the continuing costs even after, the Philippines must do all it can to address in a strategic and meaningful way the possible impact of the war in Ukraine on its defense modernization.
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Carlos D. Sorreta is undersecretary of Foreign Affairs. He was ambassador to Russia, a former assistant secretary for American Affairs, and was director general of the Foreign Service Institute. This article contains his personal views.
