Whispers of hope in the new year

Last year seemed to be the time for getting back to normal, meaning no more lockdowns, back to face-to-face meetings and classes, more shops and restaurants reopening, and, of course, more travel and cars on the road. Amid the anxiety of another variant of the COVID-19 virus coming in, we still think 2022 was better than 2021.

But with the ongoing war in Ukraine and Russia, the escalating COVID-19 cases in China, and the warning of a global recession, would 2023 be better for us?

Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno paints an optimistic 2023 for the country. He cites three early approvals that will enable the country to achieve its growth target of 6 to 7 percent: the 2023 national budget, the Philippine Development Plan for 2023 to 2028, and the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework. He also mentions a “hefty stock of international reserves,” and the removal of barriers to foreign investments, among other reasons for his optimism. However, according to a news report by Inquirer’s Ronnel Domingo, Secretary Diokno had a caveat for his rosy outlook. “As long as the country stays united and its political leaders and policymakers focused on economic growth, the Philippines’ future remains bright.”

According to Ateneo professor Dr. Alvin Ang, there are three major global events that will shape the world in 2023. The first is the possible official announcement by the World Health Organization of the end of the pandemic. This will channel global resources intended for COVID-19 to other productive undertakings. It will also lift restrictions that would then enable more economic activities. Second is China’s opening, which will loosen the global supply problems experienced in the last three years. As the largest producer of tradeable goods, China’s closure limited the movement of goods, leading to supply problems, and eventually raising prices around the world. Although, initially, this could cause a rise in oil prices, it would eventually lower the cost of trade and result in the freer flow of goods and services.

Dr. Ang also said that Russia’s softening stand toward peace talks would relieve the supply and price pressure on oil, wheat, and fertilizer production, allowing for the gradual lowering of their cost. With these scenarios, Ang said that government could focus on addressing domestic production capacities, especially of food. He cautioned that there should be no place for complacency, since we are in the midst of a global environment that is still volatile.

Even with the optimism of these two authorities, one from government and the other from the academe, we still tend to worry, given the global headwinds that might affect developing economies like ours. From a human point of view, it seems the world is so dark these days. But the source of our hope is the God who manifested Himself in flesh and blood more than 2,000 years ago. As a Christian nation, we remember the birth of Jesus every Christmas season. We go to church, say our prayers, spend time with family and friends. The glittering lights and parol around us may have somehow buoyed our anxiety and quieted our restless souls.

Will 2023 be good for us? A prophet from the Bible once warned the people of God and defined what is good. “The Lord has told you what is good, and this is what he requires of you: to do what is right, to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.” (Micah 6:8)

Let us pray that our economy would grow as forecast by government. But let us also be prepared for rougher times, and remember that difficulties and struggles will be opportunities to claim God’s promises to help us if we remain true to His teachings.

A familiar song this Christmas season is worth reflecting on—“Whispering Hope.” It tells us to wait—to wait till the darkness is over; to watch for the breaking of day. Hope for the sunshine tomorrow, after the shower is gone.

Then when the night is upon us, Why should the heart sink away? When the dark night is over, Watch for the breaking of day. May we as a people have a collective whisper of hope. Let us not give up. This new year is not just about this year; it is also about the years to come. The growth we need to aim for should provide more opportunities for the poor. Will this growth work for the poor? What kind of future are we building for our children? Only as we turn to God could we truly hope for the good of our nation.

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Leonora Aquino-Gonzales teaches in the University of the Philippines College of Mass Communication, and used to work at the World Bank as senior communications specialist.