The calendar says that a year is literally turning around the corner as January is busy pushing December out. It does seem to be very cyclical at this time of the year. Towards New Year, things do seem to move much faster, surrounded by the traditional flurry of trying to tie up loose ends.
Ever since the global pandemic of 2020, I have been looking at the coming of new years with greater interest and observation. This common mantra had been born and frequently repeated over the last three years – “the old normal is gone.”
I cannot blame those who started and got everyone else to repeat the same “the old normal is gone” mantra. The drastic impact of Covid-19 almost totally paralyzed the whole world. What else can we say in the heat of abnormality when we were mostly going on a day-to-day basis? The world was going into a series of painful convulsions.
China, where it all started, tried to assert stability early in the game and made every other nation jealous. Now, no one is envious of where China is in its protracted war against Covid-19. After all, only China is panicking about the pandemic, forced to reverse its rigid Covid-19 restrictions, and now saying it will stop giving daily reports on new infections.
I do not know whether it is because of the vaccines or the Russian invasion of Ukraine that stopped the regularity of the “old normal is gone” mantra. Whatever the different controversies swirling around the vaccines, the massive vaccination of humanity did go through and the transitioning towards endemic versus pandemic status is proceeding well.
The economic convulsions caused by the Russia-Ukraine war added to the global woes. But the threat of an apocalypse has eased, and the world has been adapting to the impact of the invasion by Putin against Ukraine. Inflation shot up everywhere and availability of essential goods became erratic, including heat for winter, but people and nations are surviving. Not old normal but not that new either.
It now becomes clear that change is necessary, that much change, indeed, has been happening, but also that it is not going so well. It is that fact about not going so well that is driving a continuing promise of unprecedented disruption. The Covid-19 pandemic, the Russian war against Ukraine with its not-so-subtle implications on the global struggle for control – these are unprecedented disruptions.
The digital eruption was given an irreversible impetus by the pandemic with humanity experiencing work-from-home realities on a mainstream basis. Obviously, it had many negative effects and was unsustainable on its own. Obviously, too, it is now a major option for the advantages it introduced. Even a hybrid of work from home and traditional face-to-face would rearrange life in general, from scheduling of an individual’s time and priorities to their collective expression.
Earlier in the experience of the pandemic, the term liminal was highlighted. Liminal means 1) occupying a position at, or on both sides of, a boundary or threshold, and 2) relating to a transitional or initial stage of a process. Whatever it may seem, liminal is not static. On the contrary, it is pulsating and disruptive, worse when it seems nothing is tangibly happening.
Neither here nor there is not a pause, it is difficult and frustrating state. When you need to go somewhere from an irresistible inertia yet unable to do so for lack of clarity, there is intense internal pressure. That is what makes the situation disruptive, being where we are when we know we should not be there yet not knowing exactly where to go.
Meanwhile, there is realization that what had been in place and in control can no longer sustain its dominance. It is not easy even for progressive decisionmakers to move away from their comfort zones which are also their strong points to simply move towards a new formula. For autocratic leaderships, it is near to impossible without being forced to. Iran is feeling it, and so is China. Russia is forcing control over its environment but is the one threatened as well.
What is happening out there in the world stage is happening in and around us at the same time – local and individual versions. There are no global visionaries that are influential enough to prod nations towards new fundamental directions. By default, the old normal remains the known model and there is this rush to go back to it. In fact, the old normal has become the standard of new normalcy.
Critical change does not happen in a flash but will not happen at all when there is neither vision nor will to make it happen. There are rewards and consequences for our individual and collective intentions and actions. The pain part will not only be unavoidable but excruciatingly painful, and more than what we have been going through since 2020 because we do not learn enough.
The promise of disruption is a function of evolution, and the degree of disruption is dependent on how intelligently and bravely we respond and adapt. The less meaningful change there is, the greater the disruption will be. It would be wise to brace ourselves for more than for less. There may be a few who have enough resources to mitigate adverse consequences, but most of us will just have to grin and bear it.
I used to be enamored with economic growth rates until a crippling inflation did not stop strong economic activity for the top 15-20% of Filipinos as it sent the rest scrambling to afford food. Inflation hurts ordinary Filipinos but strangely increases the wealth of the minority rich. I wish most of us would heed the economics of the kitchen instead of listening to expert economists downplay the hardship of most people.
That is why there is this promise of disruption. Without that promise, the prevailing cycle simply intensifies. And that is bad, very bad, not just for Filipinos, but for billions of human beings.