A look into post-election scenarios

With the official campaign period ending this Friday, all candidates, whether national or local, are already weighing on their individual plans after a possible victory or defeat in Monday’s elections.

If one believes all pre-election surveys, the presidential elections are pointing to Bongbong Marcos and Sara Duterte as winners. Except for SWS, which has not released their latest survey, Pulse Asia, Octa Research, Laylo, Publicus Asia, Tangere, Broadcast stations DZRH and DZXL have all indicated a lopsided win by the BBM-Sara tandem with margins of more than 20 million votes. Recent news reports also claim that the formidable INC has declared support to this BBM-Sara tandem.

However, VP Leni Robredo’s camp are still optimistic, citing “encouraging” survey numbers which they say did not include the record breaking 400K Pasay Rally (although PNP-NCRPO says only 70 to 80,000 strong) plus the house-to-house campaign of her supporters. They mention increase in voter preferences for Robredo, in Metro Manila, Balance of Luzon and Visayas. They also claim that Robredo is leading on Google trends on “search entries and interest” which indicate she has the momentum and people are responding to her candidacy and to victory.

The other candidates, Mayor Isko Moreno, Manny Pacquiao and Ping Lacson are also banking on their so called “silent majority” support.

But barring unforeseen circumstances, political analysts are calling the situation today as “game over”. And in a matter of days, it is time for all political groups to set aside their differences and unite for our country’s sake.

Comelec has promised a fraud and glitch-free computerized elections. Smartmatic’s participation has been checked and repeats of the “ñ” incident in 2016 polls and seven-hour “PPCRV counting choke” in 2019 will be prevented. Commissioner Marlon Casquejo also assures results of the coming 2022 polls cannot be manipulated.

If nothing untoward happens, Comelec Commissioner George Garcia says early part of May 10 or the next morning , “we already have an inkling who is the winning presidential and vice presidential candidate” . But the official canvassing will be done by Congress when they resume sessions on May 23. Meanwhile, on May 16, or 7 days after elections, winning senators and party list groups will be proclaimed.

But the big question remains, will the “losing candidate” accept the results? If Marcos wins, will Robredo’s camp concede? Or if Robredo wins, will the Marcos camp also concede? In the past weeks, we witnessed the battle of campaign rallies by both sides with thousands of people amassing in streets. Will this stop after elections or trigger further protests? Will it worsen and result into failure of elections? Of course, I hope not.

President Duterte will step down on June 30 and reiterated he will not allow disorder nor intimidation nor violence. “I will remain neutral and will see that the true will of the people will come out of the elections.”

Let us remember that at stake also on Monday’s polls are the vested interests of geopolitical powers, namely America and China in the country. And either side would want to influence on where Duterte’s “independent foreign and defense policy” will stand on his successor.

A chaotic “failure of elections” will create a power vacuum, with a possible takeover by the military, with close ties to the Americans. On the other hand, if the majority insist on their favored leader, this could trigger civil unrest, and therefore division in the security forces and conflict.

It is public knowledge that Bongbong Marcos and his family was betrayed by the Americans in 1986. Former first lady, Mrs. Imelda Marcos opened our strong ties with People’s Republic of China in the 1970’s. On the other hand, VP Leni Robredo are strongly supported by the Americans on her campaign, and her election would guarantee that pro-US foreign policy shift.

A complicated interplay of events beginning Monday which is very vital to our country’s future. We are entering an era where difficult choices will be made.

Will we see the return of an American-favored President and change Duterte’s government policies?

Or will we allow the return of a “political dynasty” much hated by the “entrenched and superpowerful businessmen” who have controlled the country in the last 36 years?

Or will we push ourselves into a bloody civil unrest and eventually end up in a military controlled government?

Let us get out there and vote and show our love for country.

Let us all pray to have a peaceful transition of power, and we will all support fully whoever will be the Constitutionally-proclaimed winner.